MANILA, Philippines – 'Bagyong Carina' (international name: Gaemi) intensified into a tropical storm while over the Philippine Sea, state weather bureau PAGASA announced on Sunday, July 21, 2024.
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| Satellite image of 'Bagyong Carina' as of July 21, 2024 4:40 pm. Photo courtesy of PAGASA |
Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Butchoy exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday.
As of 3 a.m., the center of Tropical Depression Butchoy was estimated at 905 km west of Iba, Zambales (16.3ºN, 111.6ºE) moving westward at 15 kilometers per hour (kph) with maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour kph near the center and gustiness of up to 70 kph.
At 4:00 am today, the center of Tropical Storm 'Carina' was estimated based on all available data at 490 km East of Casiguran, Aurora.
'Carina' has a maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 90 km/h, and central pressure of 998 hPa. It is moving west northwestward at 10 km/h. Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 320 km from the center.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
No Wind Signal hoisted at this time.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
Over the Philippine Sea, 'Bagyong Carina' is forecast to move generally northwestward today and tomorrow (July 22), then northward on Tuesday (July 23).
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| Photo courtesy of PAGASA |
On the track forecast, the weather disturbance will remain far from the Philippine landmass and exit the PAR on Wednesday (July 24) while moving near the islands in the Ryukyu archipelago.
Outside the PAR, it will turn generally northwestward on Thursday (July 25) over the East China Sea, passing near or over Senkaku Islands.
'Carina' is forecast to steadily intensify over the next four days due to favorable environment. It is forecast to become a severe tropical storm by tomorrow and reach typhoon category on Tuesday. Rapid intensification within the forecast period is possible.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
The enhanced Southwest Monsoon will bring moderate to intense rainfall over various localities in the western portion of Luzon tomorrow through Tuesday.
The hoisting of Wind Signal No. 1 over Extreme Northern Luzon and northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan is not ruled out, possibly by tonight or tomorrow in anticipation of strong winds associated with by the tropical storm.
The Southwest Monsoon that will be enhanced by 'Carina' and Tropical Depression (formerly Butchoy) will bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
Today (July 21): Kalayaan Islands
Tomorrow (July 22): Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas
Tuesday (July 23): Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, and Western Visayas.
TROPICAL CYCLONES
Tropical Depression Butchoy and Tropical Storm Carina are the Philippines' second and third tropical cyclones for 2024, respectively. They both developed into tropical depressions on Friday evening, July 19.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
READ: LIST: PAGASA releases Philippine Typhoon names in 2024
— The Summit Express
