MANILA, Philippines – 'Bagyong Jenny' (international name: Koinu) has intensified into a tropical storm, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 5:00 am bulletin on Saturday, September 30, 2023.
At 4:00 am today, the center of the eye of 'Bagyong Jenny' was estimated based on all available data at 1,145 km East of Central Luzon.
'Jenny' has maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 80 km/h, and central pressure of 1000 hPa. It is moving westward at 15 km/h. Strong winds extend outwards up to 330 km from the center.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
No Wind Signal hoisted at this time.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
'Bagyong Jenny' is forecast to move west northwestward today then northwestward or north northwestward tomorrow through Monday.
A west northwestward turn towards Luzon Strait-Southern Taiwan area may take place on Tuesday.
A landfall or close approach scenario over Extreme Northern Luzon or northeastern mainland Cagayan is not ruled out since these scenarios are within the forecast confidence cone.
'Jenny' is forecast to steadily intensify throughout the forecast period and may become a severe tropical storm tomorrow. Furthermore, this tropical cyclone may reach typhoon category on late Monday or on Tuesday.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Tropical Storm 'Jenny' is not directly affecting the country at this time. However, due to the proximity of the track forecast to Extreme Northern Luzon, heavy rainfall over Batanes and Babuyan Islands may be experienced on Tuesday or Wednesday.
The Southwest Monsoon may be enhanced by this tropical cyclone, resulting in possible occasional rains over the western portions of Southern Luzon and Visayas tomorrow. As such, the possibility of issuing a Weather Advisory for Southwest Monsoon is not ruled out.
Severe Winds
The current forecast scenario shows that Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals may be hoisted over Extreme Northern Luzon tomorrow or on Monday in anticipation of the onset of tropical cyclone severe winds.
However, the hoisting may happen earlier should there be changes in the forecast scenario.
The potential enhancement of the Southwest Monsoon by 'Jenny' will bring gusty conditions over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
On Monday, 'Jenny' may bring moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.5 m) over the coastal waters of Extreme Northern Luzon and northern mainland Cagayan.
Mariners of motor bancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
TROPICAL CYCLONES
'Bagyong Jenny' is the 10th tropical cyclone to enter PAR this year.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
SEE ALSO: LIST: Typhoon, tropical cyclone names in the Philippines 2023
— The Summit Express
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| Satellite image of 'Bagyong Jenny' as of 5:00 pm, September 30, 2023. Photo courtesy of DOST-PAGASA |
At 4:00 am today, the center of the eye of 'Bagyong Jenny' was estimated based on all available data at 1,145 km East of Central Luzon.
'Jenny' has maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 80 km/h, and central pressure of 1000 hPa. It is moving westward at 15 km/h. Strong winds extend outwards up to 330 km from the center.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
No Wind Signal hoisted at this time.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
'Bagyong Jenny' is forecast to move west northwestward today then northwestward or north northwestward tomorrow through Monday.
A west northwestward turn towards Luzon Strait-Southern Taiwan area may take place on Tuesday.
A landfall or close approach scenario over Extreme Northern Luzon or northeastern mainland Cagayan is not ruled out since these scenarios are within the forecast confidence cone.
'Jenny' is forecast to steadily intensify throughout the forecast period and may become a severe tropical storm tomorrow. Furthermore, this tropical cyclone may reach typhoon category on late Monday or on Tuesday.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Tropical Storm 'Jenny' is not directly affecting the country at this time. However, due to the proximity of the track forecast to Extreme Northern Luzon, heavy rainfall over Batanes and Babuyan Islands may be experienced on Tuesday or Wednesday.
The Southwest Monsoon may be enhanced by this tropical cyclone, resulting in possible occasional rains over the western portions of Southern Luzon and Visayas tomorrow. As such, the possibility of issuing a Weather Advisory for Southwest Monsoon is not ruled out.
Severe Winds
The current forecast scenario shows that Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals may be hoisted over Extreme Northern Luzon tomorrow or on Monday in anticipation of the onset of tropical cyclone severe winds.
However, the hoisting may happen earlier should there be changes in the forecast scenario.
The potential enhancement of the Southwest Monsoon by 'Jenny' will bring gusty conditions over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
- Tomorrow: Palawan, Romblon, most of Visayas, and Dinagat Islands
- Monday: Most of MIMAROPA and Visayas, and Dinagat Islands
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
On Monday, 'Jenny' may bring moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.5 m) over the coastal waters of Extreme Northern Luzon and northern mainland Cagayan.
Mariners of motor bancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
TROPICAL CYCLONES
'Bagyong Jenny' is the 10th tropical cyclone to enter PAR this year.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
SEE ALSO: LIST: Typhoon, tropical cyclone names in the Philippines 2023
— The Summit Express
