MANILA, Philippines – 'Bagyong Goring' (international name: Saola) maintains its strength as it continuous to approach the Luzon Strait, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 5:00 am bulletin on Tuesday, August 29, 2023.
At 4:00 am today, the center of the eye of Typhoon 'Goring' was estimated based on all available data at 220 km East of Aparri, Cagayan.
'Bagyong Goring' has maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 190 km/h, and central pressure of 950 hPa. It is moving north northwestward at 10 km/h. Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 280 km from the center.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 3 (Storm-force winds)
the northeastern portion of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Is.)
TCWS No. 2 (Gale-force winds)
TCWS No. 1 (Strong winds)
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
'Goring' is forecast to follow a mainly northwestward or west northwestward path across the Luzon Strait from today until it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening or Thursday morning.
The latest track forecast indicates that the typhoon may pass very close or make landfall in the vicinity of Batanes between tomorrow morning and afternoon (although a slight southward shift in the track forecast may bring the eye and eyewall region of the typhoon to the northern portion of Babuyan Islands).
During this period, the typhoon is forecast to re-intensify and may peak at near-super typhoon strength by the time it passes very close or over Batanes (although re-intensifying into a super typhoon is not ruled out).
Outside the PAR region, the typhoon will continue its west northwestward movement for the remainder of Thursday before turning more westward by Friday, increasingly unfavorable conditions over the waters southeast of mainland China will trigger a weakening trend.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
Forecast accumulated rainfall for today
Forecast accumulated rainfall for tomorrow
The enhanced Southwest Monsoon will also bring occasional or monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas over the next three days.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon, the eastern and western seaboards of Central Luzon, the seaboards of Southern Luzon, seaboards of Visayas, and the northern seaboard of Mindanao.
Disruption in civilian maritime activities is expected over these areas (e.g., suspension of sea travel) due to hazardous sea condition.
TROPICAL CYCLONES
'Bagyong Goring' is the seventh tropical cyclone for 2023. It developed from low pressure area (LPA) east of Cagayan on Thursday, August 24.
SEE ALSO: LIST: Typhoon, tropical cyclone names in the Philippines 2023
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
— The Summit Express
At 4:00 am today, the center of the eye of Typhoon 'Goring' was estimated based on all available data at 220 km East of Aparri, Cagayan.
 |
| Satellite image of 'Bagyong Goring' as of August 29, 2023 4:40 am. Photo courtesy of PAGASA |
'Bagyong Goring' has maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 190 km/h, and central pressure of 950 hPa. It is moving north northwestward at 10 km/h. Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 280 km from the center.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 3 (Storm-force winds)
the northeastern portion of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Is.)
TCWS No. 2 (Gale-force winds)
- Batanes
- the rest of Babuyan Islands
- the extreme northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga)
TCWS No. 1 (Strong winds)
- the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan (Camalaniugan, Pamplona, Santa Teresita, Baggao, Buguey, Claveria, Aparri, Ballesteros, Abulug, Sanchez-Mira, Santa Praxedes, Allacapan, Lal-Lo, Lasam, Peñablanca, Iguig, Amulung, Gattaran, Alcala, Santo Niño) the eastern portion of Isabela (Dinapigue, San Mariano, Ilagan City, Tumauini, San Pablo, Cabagan, Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan)
- the northern portion of Apayao (Flora, Calanasan, Luna, Pudtol, Santa Marcela)
- the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Vintar, Pasuquin, Burgos, Dumalneg, Adams, Pagudpud, Bangui)
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
'Goring' is forecast to follow a mainly northwestward or west northwestward path across the Luzon Strait from today until it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening or Thursday morning.
The latest track forecast indicates that the typhoon may pass very close or make landfall in the vicinity of Batanes between tomorrow morning and afternoon (although a slight southward shift in the track forecast may bring the eye and eyewall region of the typhoon to the northern portion of Babuyan Islands).
During this period, the typhoon is forecast to re-intensify and may peak at near-super typhoon strength by the time it passes very close or over Batanes (although re-intensifying into a super typhoon is not ruled out).
Outside the PAR region, the typhoon will continue its west northwestward movement for the remainder of Thursday before turning more westward by Friday, increasingly unfavorable conditions over the waters southeast of mainland China will trigger a weakening trend.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
Forecast accumulated rainfall for today
- 100-200 mm: The northeastern portion of Babuyan Islands
- 50-100 mm: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, the northern portion of Abra, the northern portion of Apayao, and the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan
Forecast accumulated rainfall for tomorrow
- Greater than 200 mm: Batanes and Babuyan Islands
- 100-200 mm: The northern portion of Ilocos Norte and the northwestern portion of Cagayan
- 50-100 mm: Apayao, Abra, the northern portion of Ilocos Sur, the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan, and the rest of Ilocos Norte
The enhanced Southwest Monsoon will also bring occasional or monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas over the next three days.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
- Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted.
- Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2
- Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
- Wind Signal No. 4 is the highest possible warning level due to severe winds that may be hoisted by PAGASA over Extreme Northern Luzon.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon, the eastern and western seaboards of Central Luzon, the seaboards of Southern Luzon, seaboards of Visayas, and the northern seaboard of Mindanao.
Disruption in civilian maritime activities is expected over these areas (e.g., suspension of sea travel) due to hazardous sea condition.
TROPICAL CYCLONES
'Bagyong Goring' is the seventh tropical cyclone for 2023. It developed from low pressure area (LPA) east of Cagayan on Thursday, August 24.
SEE ALSO: LIST: Typhoon, tropical cyclone names in the Philippines 2023
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
— The Summit Express
