MANILA, Philippines – Typhoon 'Egay' (international name: Doksuri) further intensifies while moving westward over the Philippine Sea, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 11:00 am bulletin on Monday, July 24, 2023.
At 10:00 am today, the center of 'Bagyong Egay' was estimated based on all available data at 525 km East of Baler, Aurora.
SEE ALSO: 'Bagyong Egay' PAGASA weather update July 25, 2023
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| Satellite image of 'Bagyong Egay' as of 10:40 am, July 24, 2023. Photo courtesy of DOST-PAGASA |
At 10:00 am today, the center of 'Bagyong Egay' was estimated based on all available data at 525 km East of Baler, Aurora.
SEE ALSO: 'Bagyong Egay' PAGASA weather update July 25, 2023
'Egay' has maximum sustained winds of 150 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 185 km/h, and central pressure of 960 hPa. It is moving westward slowly.
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 600 km from the center.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 2
Luzon
Visayas
TCWS No. 1
Luzon
Visayas
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
Typhoon 'Egay' is forecast to track west northwestward in the next 12 hours before turning northwestward and head closer to the landmass of Northern Luzon towards the Luzon Strait.
On the track forecast, this typhoon is forecast to cross the Luzon Strait and make landfall or pass very close to the Babuyan Islands-Batanes area between tomorrow late evening and Wednesday afternoon.
Typhoon 'Egay' may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday as it moves over the waters southwest of Taiwan. Outside the PAR, the typhoon will cross the Taiwan Strait and make landfall over Fujian, China on late Thursday or early Friday.
It must be emphasized that further shift in the track forecast closer to Luzon remains a possibility due to the persistence of the ridge of high pressure north of the typhoon. This is represented by the forecast confidence cone. As such, a landfall over the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan is not ruled out.
'Egay' is forecast to continue intensifying and reach super typhoon category by late tomorrow or on early Wednesday. However, should the track forecast shift closer to the landmass of Luzon, the typhoon may peak at an intensity just below STY threshold. Nevertheless, EGAY is forecast to become a very strong typhoon. A weakening trend may begin by Wednesday afternoon or evening as it enters the cooler waters southwest and west of Taiwan (i.e., Taiwan Strait).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Forecast accumulated rainfall from today to tomorrow noon
Forecast accumulated rainfall tomorrow noon to Wednesday noon
Forecast accumulated rainfall on Wednesday noon to Thursday noon
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are highly likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
In addition, 'Egay' may also enhance the Southwest Monsoon, bringing occasional to monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas in the next three days.
Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 are in effect. Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No.1 is hoisted. Current forecast scenario shows that the highest wind signal that may be hoisted will be Wind Signal No. 4 or 5 (e.g., typhoon-force wind threat).
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Under the influence of 'Egay', a Gale Warning is in effect over several coastal waters along the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon, the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon, the seaboards of Southeastern Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Northeastern Mindanao.
Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts. For larger vessels, operating in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. Mariners without proper experience or operating ill-equipped vessels are advised to remain in port or seek safe harbor.
In the next 24 hours, EGAY may also bring moderate to rough seas (2.0 to 3.0 m) over the coastal waters outside the Gale Warning area along the western and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon, the remaining seaboards of Visayas, and the eastern seaboard of Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing over these waters. If inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TROPICAL CYCLONES
'Bagyong Egay' is the fifth tropical cyclone for 2023. It originated from an area of low-pressure east of southeastern Luzon that developed into a tropical depression on Friday, July 21.
SEE ALSO: LIST: Typhoon, tropical cyclone names in the Philippines 2023
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
— The Summit Express
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 600 km from the center.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 2
- Wind threat: Gale-force winds
- Warning lead time: 24 hours
- Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
- Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Luzon
- Catanduanes
- central and eastern portion of Isabela (Palanan, Dinapigue, Santo Tomas, Cabagan, Tumauini, San Pablo, Maconacon, Santa Maria, Quezon, Delfin Albano, Mallig, Quirino, Roxas, Burgos, Ilagan City, Divilacan, San Mariano, Gamu, Naguilian, Benito Soliven, City of Cauayan, Reina Mercedes, Luna, San Manuel, Aurora, Cabatuan, San Guillermo, Echague, Jones, Angadanan, Alicia, San Mateo, San Isidro, San Agustin)
- eastern portion of Albay (Rapu-Rapu, Bacacay, City of Tabaco, Malilipot, Malinao, Tiwi)
- eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Presentacion, Garchitorena, Lagonoy, San Jose, Sagñay)
- northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan)
- eastern portion of Quirino (Maddela)
- eastern and central portion of Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Lal-Lo, Santa Teresita, Buguey, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Amulung, Alcala, Iguig, Tuguegarao City, Solana, Enrile), and
- the northern portion of Camarines Norte (Calaguas and Maculabo Islands)
Visayas
- The northeastern portion of Northern Samar (Laoang, Palapag)
TCWS No. 1
- Wind threat: Strong winds
- Warning lead time: 36 hours
- Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
- Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon
- Sorsogon
- the rest of Albay
- the rest of Camarines Sur
- the rest of Camarines Norte
- the rest of Isabela
- the rest of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
- Apayao
- Abra
- Kalinga
- Mountain Province
- Ifugao
- the rest of Quirino
- Nueva Vizcaya
- Batanes
- Masbate including Ticao Island
- Burias Island
- Quezon including Pollilo Islands
- the rest of Aurora
- Benguet
- Ilocos Sur
- Ilocos Norte
- La Union
- Nueva Ecija
- Pangasinan
- Tarlac
- Zambales
- Bulacan
- Pampanga
- Bataan
- Marinduque
- Cavite
- Metro Manila
- Rizal
- Laguna
- eastern and central portion of Romblon (Banton, Corcuera, Romblon, Magdiwang, Cajidiocan, San Fernando) and
- the northern and central portion of Batangas (Calaca, Cuenca, Taysan, Lian, Tuy, Balayan, Talisay, Padre Garcia, Agoncillo, Santo Tomas, San Jose, Lemery, Lipa City, Ibaan, City of Tanauan, Mataas na kahoy, Alitagtag, Balete, Nasugbu, San Juan, San Nicolas, Rosario, Laurel, Santa Teresita, Taal, Malvar)
Visayas
- Eastern Samar
- the rest of Northern Samar
- Samar
- Biliran
- northern and central portion of Leyte (Tunga, Pastrana, San Miguel, Mahaplag, Matag-Ob, Tolosa, Palo, Calubian, Leyte, Mayorga, Julita, Carigara, Babatngon, Dagami, Jaro, Abuyog, San Isidro, Santa Fe, Albuera, Villaba, La Paz, Palompon, Macarthur, Tabontabon, Tanauan, Merida, Ormoc City, Isabel, Javier, Dulag, Capoocan, Alangalang, City of Baybay, Burauen, Tabango, Tacloban City, Kananga, Barugo) and
- the northern portion of Cebu (Daanbantayan, Medellin) including Bantayan Islands, Camotes Islands
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
Typhoon 'Egay' is forecast to track west northwestward in the next 12 hours before turning northwestward and head closer to the landmass of Northern Luzon towards the Luzon Strait.
On the track forecast, this typhoon is forecast to cross the Luzon Strait and make landfall or pass very close to the Babuyan Islands-Batanes area between tomorrow late evening and Wednesday afternoon.
Typhoon 'Egay' may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday as it moves over the waters southwest of Taiwan. Outside the PAR, the typhoon will cross the Taiwan Strait and make landfall over Fujian, China on late Thursday or early Friday.
It must be emphasized that further shift in the track forecast closer to Luzon remains a possibility due to the persistence of the ridge of high pressure north of the typhoon. This is represented by the forecast confidence cone. As such, a landfall over the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan is not ruled out.
'Egay' is forecast to continue intensifying and reach super typhoon category by late tomorrow or on early Wednesday. However, should the track forecast shift closer to the landmass of Luzon, the typhoon may peak at an intensity just below STY threshold. Nevertheless, EGAY is forecast to become a very strong typhoon. A weakening trend may begin by Wednesday afternoon or evening as it enters the cooler waters southwest and west of Taiwan (i.e., Taiwan Strait).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Forecast accumulated rainfall from today to tomorrow noon
- 50-100 mm: Cagayan, Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, and the northern portion of Sorsogon
Forecast accumulated rainfall tomorrow noon to Wednesday noon
- Above 200 mm: Batanes, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, northern portion of Apayao, Abra, and the northern portion of La Union
- 100-200 mm: the northern and eastern portion of Isabela, the rest of Apayao, the rest of La Union, Mt. Province, Benguet, and the western portion of Pangasinan
- 50-100 mm: the rest of Cordillera Administrative Region, the rest of Pangasinan, and Zambales
Forecast accumulated rainfall on Wednesday noon to Thursday noon
- Above 200 mm: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, the northwestern portion of Abra
- 100-200 mm: The northern portion of mainland Cagayan, Apayao, the rest of Abra, and Ilocos Sur,
- 50-100 mm: The rest of mainland Cagayan, Kalinga, the western portion of Mountain Province, Benguet, La Union, and Pangasinan.
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are highly likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
In addition, 'Egay' may also enhance the Southwest Monsoon, bringing occasional to monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas in the next three days.
Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 are in effect. Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No.1 is hoisted. Current forecast scenario shows that the highest wind signal that may be hoisted will be Wind Signal No. 4 or 5 (e.g., typhoon-force wind threat).
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Under the influence of 'Egay', a Gale Warning is in effect over several coastal waters along the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon, the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon, the seaboards of Southeastern Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Northeastern Mindanao.
Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts. For larger vessels, operating in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. Mariners without proper experience or operating ill-equipped vessels are advised to remain in port or seek safe harbor.
In the next 24 hours, EGAY may also bring moderate to rough seas (2.0 to 3.0 m) over the coastal waters outside the Gale Warning area along the western and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon, the remaining seaboards of Visayas, and the eastern seaboard of Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing over these waters. If inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TROPICAL CYCLONES
'Bagyong Egay' is the fifth tropical cyclone for 2023. It originated from an area of low-pressure east of southeastern Luzon that developed into a tropical depression on Friday, July 21.
SEE ALSO: LIST: Typhoon, tropical cyclone names in the Philippines 2023
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
— The Summit Express
