MANILA, Philippines – 'Bagyong Jolina' (international name: Conson) is forecast to move over Tayabas Bay and make another landfall in the vicinity of eastern Batangas this morning, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 5:00 am update on Wednesday, September 8, 2021.
At 4:00 am today, Severe Tropical Storm 'Jolina' was estimated based on all available data over the coastal waters of Boac, Marinduque.
SEE ALSO: #WalangPasok: Class suspensions on September 8, 2021
'Bagyong Jolina' has maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 150 km/h, and central pressure of 996 hPa. It is moving west northwestward at 15 km/h.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 2 (Damaging gale-force to storm-force winds prevailing or expected within 24 hours)
Luzon
TCWS No. 1 (Strong winds prevailing or expected within 36 hours)
Luzon
Visayas
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
Due to the recent southwestward trend in the shift of track forecasts, the possibility of landfall in the vicinity of northern Oriental Mindoro is not ruled out at this time.
Afterwards, the storm will cross the Batangas-Cavite area before emerging over Manila Bay tonight.
This will be followed by another landfall in the vicinity of Bataan Peninsula. Frictional effects during its traverse of mainland Luzon will weaken “JOLINA” down to tropical storm category.
'Jolina' is forecast to emerge over the West Philippine Sea on tomorrow morning. Re-intensification is forecast to occur beginning tomorrow afternoon as the tropical cyclone moves west northwestward over the West Philippine Sea towards the southern China-northern Vietnam area.
This tropical cyclone is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Friday morning.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
In the next 24 hours, heavy to intense with at times torrential rains will be experienced over Metro Manila, Romblon, Marinduque, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon, Camarines Provinces, and Mindoro Provinces. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains are also likely over Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales, Albay, Sorsogon, northern Palawan, Aklan, Antique, Capiz, Iloilo, and Guimaras.
Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are highly likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps.
Severe Winds
Damaging gale-force to storm-force winds are likely to occur within any of the areas where TCWS #2 is in effect. This may bring generally light to moderate damage to structures and vegetation.
Strong winds (strong breeze to near gale conditions) with occasional gusts will be experienced in areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 is in effect. This may result to up to very light damage to structures and vegetation.
Coastal Inundation
In the next 24 hours, storm surge of up to 1.5 m over several coastal areas of Quezon may result in coastal inundation which may pose threat to life and property. In addition, coastal areas of localities under TCWS, especially those at #2 may also experience coastal flooding due to hazardous surf conditions.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
In the next 24 hours, Severe Tropical Storm 'Jolina' will bring rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the seaboards of areas where TCWS #2 is in effect. Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters. Mariners without the proper experience should immediately seek safe harbor.
Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.8 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of areas where TCWS #1 is in effect and the remaining seaboards of Visayas. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
TROPICAL CYCLONES
'Jolina', the 10th tropical cyclone for 2021, developed into Tropical Depression on Monday, September 6.
PAGASA predicts that 2–3 tropical cyclones may enter/develop in the PAR this month.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
The weather agency declared the onset of the rainy season on Friday, June 5.
— The Summit Express
At 4:00 am today, Severe Tropical Storm 'Jolina' was estimated based on all available data over the coastal waters of Boac, Marinduque.
SEE ALSO: #WalangPasok: Class suspensions on September 8, 2021
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| Satellite image of 'Bagyong Jolina' as of 4:40 am, September 8, 2021. Photo from PAGASA |
'Bagyong Jolina' has maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 150 km/h, and central pressure of 996 hPa. It is moving west northwestward at 15 km/h.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 2 (Damaging gale-force to storm-force winds prevailing or expected within 24 hours)
Luzon
- The northern portion of Romblon (Banton, Corcuera, Concepcion, Calatrava, San Andres, San Agustin, Romblon)
- Marinduque
- the northern and central portions of Oriental Mindoro (Bansud, Gloria, Pinamalayan, Pola, Socorro, Victoria, Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Baco, City of Calapan, Naujan)
- the northern and central portions of Occidental Mindoro (Abra de Ilog, Paluan, Mamburao, Santa Cruz, Sablayan) including Lubang Islands
- the central and southern portions of Quezon (Buenavista, Mulanay, San Narciso, San Francisco, San Andres, Catanauan, General Luna, Lopez, Macalelon, Sampaloc, Unisan, Pagbilao, Sariaya, Alabat, Pitogo, City of Tayabas, Padre Burgos, Lucban, Gumaca, Agdangan, Plaridel, San Antonio, Candelaria, Atimonan, Quezon, Tiaong, Mauban, Perez, Lucena City, Dolores, Real, Infanta)
- Batangas
- Cavite
- Laguna
- Rizal
- Metro Manila
- the southern portion of Bulacan (Pandi, Bulacan, Marilao, Calumpit, Norzagaray, Plaridel, Santa Maria, Balagtas, Bocaue, Bustos, City of Malolos, Angat, Obando, City of San Jose del Monte, Pulilan, City of Meycauayan, Hagonoy, Paombong, Guiguinto, San Rafael, Baliuag)
- Pampanga
- Bataan
- Zambales
- Tarlac
TCWS No. 1 (Strong winds prevailing or expected within 36 hours)
Luzon
- La Union
- the southern portion of Benguet (Sablan, Tublay, Bokod, La Trinidad, Baguio City, Itogon, Tuba, Kapangan, Atok)
- the southern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Alfonso Castaneda, Dupax del Norte, Dupax del Sur, Aritao, Santa Fe, Kayapa)
- the southern portion of Aurora (Baler, Maria Aurora, San Luis, Dingalan), Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija
- the rest of Bulacan
- the rest of Quezon including Polillo Islands
- Camarines Norte
- the western portion of Camarines Sur (Del Gallego, Ragay, Lupi, Sipocot, Libmanan, Calabanga, Bombon, Pili, Naga City, Cabusao, Canaman, Gainza, Camaligan, Magarao, Pasacao, Pamplona, San Fernando, Milaor, Minalabac, Bula, Baao, Nabua, Balatan, Bato, Ocampo, Iriga City, Tinambac, Siruma) the western portion of Albay (Libon, Oas, City of Ligao, Pio Duran, Polangui)
- the northwestern portion of Masbate (Aroroy) including Burias Island
- the rest of Romblon the rest of Oriental Mindoro
- the rest of Occidental Mindoro
Visayas
- The northwestern portion of Antique (Caluya)
- the northern portion of Aklan (Makato, Numancia, Buruanga, Tangalan, Ibajay, Malay, Nabas)
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
Due to the recent southwestward trend in the shift of track forecasts, the possibility of landfall in the vicinity of northern Oriental Mindoro is not ruled out at this time.
Afterwards, the storm will cross the Batangas-Cavite area before emerging over Manila Bay tonight.
This will be followed by another landfall in the vicinity of Bataan Peninsula. Frictional effects during its traverse of mainland Luzon will weaken “JOLINA” down to tropical storm category.
'Jolina' is forecast to emerge over the West Philippine Sea on tomorrow morning. Re-intensification is forecast to occur beginning tomorrow afternoon as the tropical cyclone moves west northwestward over the West Philippine Sea towards the southern China-northern Vietnam area.
This tropical cyclone is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Friday morning.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
In the next 24 hours, heavy to intense with at times torrential rains will be experienced over Metro Manila, Romblon, Marinduque, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon, Camarines Provinces, and Mindoro Provinces. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains are also likely over Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales, Albay, Sorsogon, northern Palawan, Aklan, Antique, Capiz, Iloilo, and Guimaras.
Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are highly likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps.
Severe Winds
Damaging gale-force to storm-force winds are likely to occur within any of the areas where TCWS #2 is in effect. This may bring generally light to moderate damage to structures and vegetation.
Strong winds (strong breeze to near gale conditions) with occasional gusts will be experienced in areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 is in effect. This may result to up to very light damage to structures and vegetation.
Coastal Inundation
In the next 24 hours, storm surge of up to 1.5 m over several coastal areas of Quezon may result in coastal inundation which may pose threat to life and property. In addition, coastal areas of localities under TCWS, especially those at #2 may also experience coastal flooding due to hazardous surf conditions.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
In the next 24 hours, Severe Tropical Storm 'Jolina' will bring rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the seaboards of areas where TCWS #2 is in effect. Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters. Mariners without the proper experience should immediately seek safe harbor.
Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.8 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of areas where TCWS #1 is in effect and the remaining seaboards of Visayas. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
TROPICAL CYCLONES
'Jolina', the 10th tropical cyclone for 2021, developed into Tropical Depression on Monday, September 6.
PAGASA predicts that 2–3 tropical cyclones may enter/develop in the PAR this month.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
The weather agency declared the onset of the rainy season on Friday, June 5.
— The Summit Express
Maulang Umaga po!
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