MANILA, Philippines – 'Bagyong Jolina' (international name: Conson) continues to move west northwestward over Samar sea towards Masbate, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 8:00 am update on Tuesday, September 7, 2021.
SEE ALSO: 'Bagyong Jolina' PAGASA weather update September 8, 2021
SEE ALSO: 'Bagyong Jolina' PAGASA weather update September 8, 2021
At 7:00 am today, Typhoon 'Jolina' was estimated based on all available data over the coastal waters of Almagro, Samar.
'Bagyong Jolina' has maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 150 km/h, and central pressure of 990 hPa. It is moving west northwestward at 15 km/h.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS IN EFFECT
TCWS No.3 (Destructive typhoon-force winds prevailing or expected within 18 hours)
Luzon
Visayas
TCWS No.2 (61-120 Damaging gale-force winds prevailing or expected within 24 hours)
Luzon
Visayas
TCWS No.1 (Strong winds prevailing or expected within 36 hours)
Luzon
Visayas
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
Recent landfalls: Almagro, Samar (6:30 AM)
Within the next 12 hours, the typhoon is forecast to make landfall in the vicinity of Masbate (mainland or Ticao Island).
Beyond the next 12 hours, 'Jolina' will move northwestward towards Burias Island and the vicinity of Ragay Gulf before making another landfall in the vicinity of southeastern Quezon tonight or tomorrow early morning. Prolonged interaction with land may result in its weakening into a severe tropical storm.
By tomorrow afternoon, the typhoon will briefly emerge over Lopez Bay before making landfall in the vicinity of northern Quezon. Throughout the remainder of tomorrow and into Thursday morning, the tropical cyclone is forecast to cross Central Luzon (roughly to the east and north of Metro Manila).
Frictional effects during its traverse of Luzon landmass will weaken the cyclone down to tropical storm category.
'JOLINA' is forecast to emerge over the West Philippine Sea before noon on Thursday. Re-intensification is forecast to occur beginning on Thursday afternoon as the tropical cyclone moves west northwestward over the West Philippine Sea towards the southern China-northern Vietnam area.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
In the next 24 hours, 'Jolina' may bring heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Leyte, Biliran, Sorsogon, Albay, Romblon, and Masbate. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains are also likely over the southern portion of Quezon, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, and the rest of Bicol Region and Visayas.
Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps.
Severe Winds
Destructive typhoon-force winds are likely to occur within any of the areas where Signal No. 3 is in effect. This may bring generally moderate to heavy damage to structures and vegetation.
Damaging gale-force to storm-force winds are likely to occur within any of the areas where Signal No.2 is in effect. This may bring generally light to moderate damage to structures and vegetation.
Strong winds (strong breeze to near gale conditions) with occasional gusts will be experienced in areas where Signal No. 1 is in effect. This may result to up to very light damage to structures and vegetation.
Coastal Inundation
In the next 24 hours, the threat of coastal inundation due to storm surge of up to 0.5-1.0 m continues for several coastal localities of Biliran, Sorsogon, Samar, and Masbate which may pose threat to life and property. In addition, coastal areas of localities under TCWS, especially those at No. 2 and No. 3 may experience coastal flooding due to hazardous surf conditions.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
In the next 24 hours, Typhoon 'Jolina' will bring rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the seaboards of areas where Signal No. 2 and 3 are in effect.
Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters. Mariners without the proper experience should immediately seek safe harbor.
Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.8 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of areas where Signal No. 1 is in effect, the remaining seaboards of Visayas, and the northern eastern seaboards of Mindanao.
Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
TROPICAL CYCLONES
'Jolina', the 10th tropical cyclone for 2021, developed into Tropical Depression on Monday, September 6.
PAGASA predicts that 2–3 tropical cyclones may enter/develop in the PAR this month.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
The weather agency declared the onset of the rainy season on Friday, June 5.
— The Summit Express
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| Satellite image of Typhoon 'Jolina' as of 8:00 am, September 7, 2021. Photo from PAGASA |
'Bagyong Jolina' has maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 150 km/h, and central pressure of 990 hPa. It is moving west northwestward at 15 km/h.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS IN EFFECT
TCWS No.3 (Destructive typhoon-force winds prevailing or expected within 18 hours)
Luzon
- The northern and eastern portions of Masbate (Pio V. Corpuz, Palanas, Cataingan, Placer, Dimasalang, Uson, Cawayan, Esperanza, Mobo, Aroroy, Baleno, City of Masbate, Mandaon, Milagros) including Ticao and Burias Islands
Visayas
- The extreme western portion of Northern Samar (San Vicente, Capul, San Isidro, San Antonio)
- the northern portion of Biliran (Kawayan, Maripipi, Almeria)
- the northwestern portion of Samar (Santo Niño, Tagapul-An, Almagro, Calbayog City)
TCWS No.2 (61-120 Damaging gale-force winds prevailing or expected within 24 hours)
Luzon
- Albay
- Sorsogon
- the rest of Masbate
- the western and southern portions of Camarines Sur (Del Gallego, Lupi, Ragay, Libmanan, Sipocot, Cabusao, Pasacao, Pamplona, Gainza, Camaligan, Canaman, Magarao, Bombon, Naga City, Pili, Ocampo, Iriga City, Sagñay, Buhi, Milaor, San Fernando, Minalabac, Bula, Nabua, Baao, Balatan, Bato, Calabanga)
- the western portion of Camarines Norte (Capalonga, Jose Panganiban, Labo, San Vicente, San Lorenzo Ruiz, Santa Elena)
- Marinduque
- the southern portion of Quezon (Tagkawayan, Guinayangan, Buenavista, Mulanay, San Narciso, San Francisco, San Andres, Catanauan, Calauag, General Luna, Lopez, Macalelon, Perez, Alabat, Quezon, Atimonan, Padre Burgos, Agdangan, Unisan, Pitogo, Gumaca, Plaridel)
- the eastern portion of Romblon (San Fernando, Magdiwang, Cajidiocan, Romblon, Banton, Corcuera)
Visayas
- The rest of Biliran
- the western portion of Northern Samar (Silvino Lobos, Lope de Vega, Catarman, Bobon, San Jose, Rosario, Lavezares, Biri, Allen, Victoria, Mondragon)
- the rest of Samar
- the northern portion of Leyte (Calubian, San Isidro, Tabango, Leyte, Villaba, Matag-Ob, Kananga, Carigara, Jaro, Pastrana, Santa Fe, Tacloban City, Barugo, San Miguel, Alangalang, Tunga, Babatngon, Capoocan)
TCWS No.1 (Strong winds prevailing or expected within 36 hours)
Luzon
- Catanduanes
- the rest of Camarines Sur
- the rest of Camarines Norte
- the rest of Quezon including Polillo Islands
- Laguna
- Cavite
- Batangas
- Rizal
- Metro Manila
- Bulacan
- the rest of Romblon
- Oriental Mindoro
Visayas
- The rest of Northern Samar
- the rest of Eastern Samar
- the rest of Leyte
- the northern portion of Southern Leyte (Silago, Bontoc, Sogod)
- the northern portion of Cebu (Carmen, Tuburan, Catmon, Sogod, Tabuelan, Borbon, Tabogon, San Remigio, City of Bogo, Medellin, Daanbantayan) including Camotes and Bantayan Islands
- the northeastern portion of Iloilo (Concepcion, Sara, San Dionisio, Batad, Estancia, Carles, Balasan)
- the northern portion of Aklan (Malay, Nabas, Ibajay, Tangalan, Makato, Numancia, Lezo, New Washington, Kalibo, Batan, Altavas)
- the northern portion of Capiz (Pilar, Panay, Roxas City, Sapi-An, Ivisan, Pontevedra, Panitan, President Roxas, Ma-Ayon)
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
Recent landfalls: Almagro, Samar (6:30 AM)
Within the next 12 hours, the typhoon is forecast to make landfall in the vicinity of Masbate (mainland or Ticao Island).
Beyond the next 12 hours, 'Jolina' will move northwestward towards Burias Island and the vicinity of Ragay Gulf before making another landfall in the vicinity of southeastern Quezon tonight or tomorrow early morning. Prolonged interaction with land may result in its weakening into a severe tropical storm.
By tomorrow afternoon, the typhoon will briefly emerge over Lopez Bay before making landfall in the vicinity of northern Quezon. Throughout the remainder of tomorrow and into Thursday morning, the tropical cyclone is forecast to cross Central Luzon (roughly to the east and north of Metro Manila).
Frictional effects during its traverse of Luzon landmass will weaken the cyclone down to tropical storm category.
'JOLINA' is forecast to emerge over the West Philippine Sea before noon on Thursday. Re-intensification is forecast to occur beginning on Thursday afternoon as the tropical cyclone moves west northwestward over the West Philippine Sea towards the southern China-northern Vietnam area.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
In the next 24 hours, 'Jolina' may bring heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Leyte, Biliran, Sorsogon, Albay, Romblon, and Masbate. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains are also likely over the southern portion of Quezon, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, and the rest of Bicol Region and Visayas.
Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps.
Severe Winds
Destructive typhoon-force winds are likely to occur within any of the areas where Signal No. 3 is in effect. This may bring generally moderate to heavy damage to structures and vegetation.
Damaging gale-force to storm-force winds are likely to occur within any of the areas where Signal No.2 is in effect. This may bring generally light to moderate damage to structures and vegetation.
Strong winds (strong breeze to near gale conditions) with occasional gusts will be experienced in areas where Signal No. 1 is in effect. This may result to up to very light damage to structures and vegetation.
Coastal Inundation
In the next 24 hours, the threat of coastal inundation due to storm surge of up to 0.5-1.0 m continues for several coastal localities of Biliran, Sorsogon, Samar, and Masbate which may pose threat to life and property. In addition, coastal areas of localities under TCWS, especially those at No. 2 and No. 3 may experience coastal flooding due to hazardous surf conditions.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
In the next 24 hours, Typhoon 'Jolina' will bring rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the seaboards of areas where Signal No. 2 and 3 are in effect.
Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters. Mariners without the proper experience should immediately seek safe harbor.
Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.8 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of areas where Signal No. 1 is in effect, the remaining seaboards of Visayas, and the northern eastern seaboards of Mindanao.
Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
TROPICAL CYCLONES
'Jolina', the 10th tropical cyclone for 2021, developed into Tropical Depression on Monday, September 6.
PAGASA predicts that 2–3 tropical cyclones may enter/develop in the PAR this month.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
The weather agency declared the onset of the rainy season on Friday, June 5.
— The Summit Express
