MANILA, Philippines – 'Bagyong Fabian' (international name: In-fa) slightly intensified and nearing severe tropical storm category, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 5:00 am update on Monday, July 19, 2021.
SEE ALSO: 'Bagyong Fabian' PAGASA weather update July 20, 2021
SEE ALSO: 'Bagyong Fabian' PAGASA weather update July 20, 2021
As of 4:00 am today, the center of Tropical Storm 'Fabian' was estimated based on all available data at 1,090 km East Northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon.
'Bagyong Fabian' has maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 105 km/h, and central pressure of 992 hPa. It is moving north northwestward at 10 km/h.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS
No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal is currently in effect.
The latest forecast scenario shows that the hoisting of any TCWS over any land area in the country remains less likely. However, residents and disaster managers in Batanes and Babuyan Islands are advised to continuously monitor the tropical cyclone bulletins as any further southward shift in the orientation of the track forecast may result in the hoisting of TCWS #1 over these areas.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
'Fabian' is forecast to maintain a north northwestward or northwestward heading today before turning west northwestward on tomorrow.
The tropical cyclone may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening or on Wednesday early morning. Afterwards, the weather disturbance will move generally westward and pass close to the Miyako and Senkaku Islands of the Ryukyu Archipelago on Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. A west northwestward turn is likely by Friday as “FABIAN” passes over the sea north of Taiwan.
A southward shift in the orientation of the track forecasts has been observed for the past 24 hours. If the trend continues, there is an increasing possibility that 'Fabian' will either re-enter the PAR or exit the PAR much later than the current forecast suggests.
It is forecast to further intensify throughout the forecast period and reach severe tropical storm category within 12 hours and typhoon category by Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning. Peak intensity may be reached by Thursday. Slight weakening may occur by Friday afternoon as the circulation of the cyclone interacts with the rough terrain of Taiwan during its passage to the north of the island.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
'Fabian' is unlikely to bring heavy rainfall in the country throughout the forecast period.
Under the influence of the Southwest Monsoon that is being enhanced by 'Fabian' and the Tropical Depression estimated at 900 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon (outside the PAR), monsoon rains will be experienced in the next 24 hours over Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and Palawan.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
In the next 24 hours, under the influence of the Southwest Monsoon enhanced by both 'Fabian' and the Tropical Depression outside the PAR, moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 2.8 m) may be experienced over the western seaboard of Palawan including Kalayaan Islands.
Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
TROPICAL CYCLONES
'Fabian', the sixth tropical cyclone for 2021, developed into Tropical Depression while inside PAR on Friday, July 16.
PAGASA predicts that 1–3 tropical cyclones may enter the PAR this month.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
The weather agency declared the onset of the rainy season on Friday, June 5.
— The Summit Express
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| Satellite image of Tropical Storm 'Fabian' as of 5:30 am, July 19, 2021. via DOST-PAGASA |
'Bagyong Fabian' has maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 105 km/h, and central pressure of 992 hPa. It is moving north northwestward at 10 km/h.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS
No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal is currently in effect.
The latest forecast scenario shows that the hoisting of any TCWS over any land area in the country remains less likely. However, residents and disaster managers in Batanes and Babuyan Islands are advised to continuously monitor the tropical cyclone bulletins as any further southward shift in the orientation of the track forecast may result in the hoisting of TCWS #1 over these areas.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
'Fabian' is forecast to maintain a north northwestward or northwestward heading today before turning west northwestward on tomorrow.
The tropical cyclone may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening or on Wednesday early morning. Afterwards, the weather disturbance will move generally westward and pass close to the Miyako and Senkaku Islands of the Ryukyu Archipelago on Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. A west northwestward turn is likely by Friday as “FABIAN” passes over the sea north of Taiwan.
A southward shift in the orientation of the track forecasts has been observed for the past 24 hours. If the trend continues, there is an increasing possibility that 'Fabian' will either re-enter the PAR or exit the PAR much later than the current forecast suggests.
It is forecast to further intensify throughout the forecast period and reach severe tropical storm category within 12 hours and typhoon category by Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning. Peak intensity may be reached by Thursday. Slight weakening may occur by Friday afternoon as the circulation of the cyclone interacts with the rough terrain of Taiwan during its passage to the north of the island.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
'Fabian' is unlikely to bring heavy rainfall in the country throughout the forecast period.
Under the influence of the Southwest Monsoon that is being enhanced by 'Fabian' and the Tropical Depression estimated at 900 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon (outside the PAR), monsoon rains will be experienced in the next 24 hours over Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and Palawan.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
In the next 24 hours, under the influence of the Southwest Monsoon enhanced by both 'Fabian' and the Tropical Depression outside the PAR, moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 2.8 m) may be experienced over the western seaboard of Palawan including Kalayaan Islands.
Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
TROPICAL CYCLONES
'Fabian', the sixth tropical cyclone for 2021, developed into Tropical Depression while inside PAR on Friday, July 16.
PAGASA predicts that 1–3 tropical cyclones may enter the PAR this month.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
The weather agency declared the onset of the rainy season on Friday, June 5.
— The Summit Express
