MANILA, Philippines – 'Bagyong Auring' (international name: Dujuan) continues to weaken as it approaches Dinagat Islands - Homonhon Island area, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 5:00 am bulletin on Monday, February 22, 2021.
Tropical depression 'Auring' is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward to northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track and its probability cone, it may initially make landfall over the Dinagat Islands-Eastern Samar (southern portion including Homonhon Island)-Leyte area in the next 6 to 12 hours.
There is an increasing likelihood that TD 'Auring' will further weaken before it makes landfall due to persistent high vertical wind shear associated with the surge of the Northeast Monsoon. Post-landfall, it is forecast to weaken considerably due to significant terrain interaction and the increasing wind shear, leading to deterioration into a remnant low within 24 hours, possibly sooner.
At 4:00 am today, the center of Tropical Depression 'Auring' was estimated based on all available data at 195 km East of Maasin City, Southern Leyte.
'Auring' has maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 55 km/h. It is moving West Northwestward at 15 km/h.
Forecast Position
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS No. 1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
LUZON
VISAYAS
MINDANAO
Hazards affecting land areas
Heavy Rainfall
Today: Moderate to heavy rains over Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Marinduque, Romblon, and Quezon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Aurora and the rest of Visayas, MIMAROPA, and CALABARZON.
Tomorrow: Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Metro Manila, Camarines Norte, Bulacan, Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Batanes.
Under these conditions, isolated to scattered flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are still likely during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that received significant rainfall over the past couple of days.
Adjacent or nearby areas may also experience flooding in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels.
Strong Winds
In the next 24 hours, the combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon and 'Auring' will bring strong breeze to near-gale conditions with occasionally higher gusts over the areas where TCWS No. 1 is in effect, as well as over Aurora, Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Batanes, Babuyan Islands, the northern portions of Ilocos Norte and mainland Cagayan, Cuyo Islands, Cagayancillo Islands, and the rest of Visayas and Bicol Region.
Hazards affecting coastal waters
In the next 24 hours, rough seas will be experienced over the seaboards of areas under TCWS No. 1, the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon, the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon not under any TCWS (2.5 to 3.5 m), the southern seaboard of Luzon and the remaining seaboards of Visayas (2.5 to 3.0 m). Sea travel is risky especially for those using small seacrafts.
Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the remaining seaboards of Luzon, and the northern and western seaboards of Mindanao not under any TCWS. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only have of those are projected to make landfall.
READ: 2021 Philippines' tropical cyclone names
— The Summit Express
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| Satellite image of Tropical Storm Auring as of 4:50 am, February 22, 2021 | via DOST-PAGASA |
Tropical depression 'Auring' is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward to northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track and its probability cone, it may initially make landfall over the Dinagat Islands-Eastern Samar (southern portion including Homonhon Island)-Leyte area in the next 6 to 12 hours.
There is an increasing likelihood that TD 'Auring' will further weaken before it makes landfall due to persistent high vertical wind shear associated with the surge of the Northeast Monsoon. Post-landfall, it is forecast to weaken considerably due to significant terrain interaction and the increasing wind shear, leading to deterioration into a remnant low within 24 hours, possibly sooner.
At 4:00 am today, the center of Tropical Depression 'Auring' was estimated based on all available data at 195 km East of Maasin City, Southern Leyte.
'Auring' has maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 55 km/h. It is moving West Northwestward at 15 km/h.
Forecast Position
- 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 55 km West Southwest of Romblon, Romblon
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS No. 1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
LUZON
- Sorsogon
- Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands
- Albay
- Catanduanes
- the eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Presentacion, Sagnay, Buhi, Iriga City, Nabua, Bato, Balatan)
VISAYAS
- Northern Samar
- Eastern Samar
- Samar
- Biliran
- Leyte
- Southern Leyte
- Bohol
- Cebu
- Siquijor
- the northern and eastern portions of Negros Oriental (Dumaguete City, Sibulan, San Jose, Amlan, Pamplona, Tanjay City, Bais City, Manjuyod, Bindoy, Ayungon, Tayasan, Jimalalud, La Libertad, Guihulngan City, Canlaon City, Vallehermoso)
- the northern and central portions of Negros Occidental (Binalbagan, Isabela, Moises Padilla, La Castellana, La Carlota City, Bago City, Pontevedra, Hinigaran, San Enrique, Valladolid, Pulupandan, Murcia, San Carlos City, Bacolod City, Salvador Benedicto, Calatrava, Talisay City, Silay City, Enrique B. Magalona, Victorias City, Manapla, Cadiz City, Sagay City, Escalante City, Toboso)
- the eastern portion of Iloilo (Dumangas, Barotac Nuevo, Anilao, San Rafael, Barotac Viejo, Banate, Passi City, San Enrique, Dingle, Lemery, Ajuy, Sara, Concepcion, San Dionisio, Batad, Estancia, Balasan, Carles)
- the eastern portion of Capiz (Cuartero, Dumarao, Ma-Ayon, Pontevedra, Panay, President Roxas, Panitan, Dao, Pilar)
MINDANAO
- Dinagat Islands
- Surigao del Norte
- the northern portion of Surigao del Sur (Lianga, Barobo, San Agustin, Marihatag, Cagwait, Bayabas, Tago, San Miguel, Tandag City, Cortes, Lanuza, Carmen, Madrid, Cantilan, Carrascal)
- Agusan del Norte
- the northern portion of Agusan del Sur (Bayugan City, Prosperidad, Sibagat)
- the eastern portion of Misamis Oriental (Gingoog City, Magsaysay, Medina, Talisayan, Claveria, Balingasag, Lagonglong, Balingoan, Kinoguitan, Sugbongcogon, Binuangan, Salay)
- Camiguin
Hazards affecting land areas
Heavy Rainfall
Today: Moderate to heavy rains over Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Marinduque, Romblon, and Quezon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Aurora and the rest of Visayas, MIMAROPA, and CALABARZON.
Tomorrow: Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Metro Manila, Camarines Norte, Bulacan, Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Batanes.
Under these conditions, isolated to scattered flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are still likely during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that received significant rainfall over the past couple of days.
Adjacent or nearby areas may also experience flooding in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels.
Strong Winds
In the next 24 hours, the combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon and 'Auring' will bring strong breeze to near-gale conditions with occasionally higher gusts over the areas where TCWS No. 1 is in effect, as well as over Aurora, Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Batanes, Babuyan Islands, the northern portions of Ilocos Norte and mainland Cagayan, Cuyo Islands, Cagayancillo Islands, and the rest of Visayas and Bicol Region.
Hazards affecting coastal waters
In the next 24 hours, rough seas will be experienced over the seaboards of areas under TCWS No. 1, the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon, the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon not under any TCWS (2.5 to 3.5 m), the southern seaboard of Luzon and the remaining seaboards of Visayas (2.5 to 3.0 m). Sea travel is risky especially for those using small seacrafts.
Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the remaining seaboards of Luzon, and the northern and western seaboards of Mindanao not under any TCWS. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only have of those are projected to make landfall.
READ: 2021 Philippines' tropical cyclone names
— The Summit Express
