MANILA, Philippines – 'Bagyong Auring', the first tropical cyclone to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this year, slightly weakened and forecast to make landfall over the Caraga region, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 5:00 am bulletin on Saturday, February 20, 2021.
Tropical Storm Auring (international name: Dujuan) is expected to remain almost stationary in the next 6 to 12 hours before gradually accelerating towards the northwest. Its center is forecast to make landfall over the eastern coast of Caraga Region on Sunday morning or afternoon (February 21), then cross Visayas and MIMAROPA throughout the remainder of Sunday through Monday.
READ: 'Bagyong Auring' PAGASA weather update February 22, 2021
 |
| Satellite image of Tropical Storm Auring as of 7:20 am, February 20, 2021 | via DOST-PAGASA |
Tropical Storm Auring (international name: Dujuan) is expected to remain almost stationary in the next 6 to 12 hours before gradually accelerating towards the northwest. Its center is forecast to make landfall over the eastern coast of Caraga Region on Sunday morning or afternoon (February 21), then cross Visayas and MIMAROPA throughout the remainder of Sunday through Monday.
READ: 'Bagyong Auring' PAGASA weather update February 22, 2021
PAGASA said there is an increasing likelihood that the storm will weaken into a tropical depression before making landfall. Nevertheless, this storm will likely weaken considerably due to significant terrain interaction and persistent vertical wind shear during this passage over the archipelago and may reach tropical depression category on Monday.
At 4:00 am today, the center of Tropical Storm 'Auring' was estimated based on all available data at 475 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur. It has maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 90 km/h.
Forecast Position
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS No. 1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Visayas
Mindanao
Impacts of the wind
Hazards affecting land areas
Heavy Rainfall
Until this noon: Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Eastern Visayas, Caraga, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, Bukidnon, Misamis Oriental, and Southern Leyte.
This noon through tomorrow (February 21) morning: Heavy to intense rains over Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, and Dinagat Islands. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, and the rest of Caraga. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, and the rest of Northern Mindanao.
Tomorrow morning through Monday (February 22) morning: Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Leyte, Southern Leyte, Cebu, Bohol, Surigao del Norte, and Dinagat Islands. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, the southern portion of Quezon, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, and the rest of Visayas and Caraga.
Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are likely during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps. Adjacent or nearby areas may also experience flooding in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels.
PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.
Strong winds
In the next 24 hours, the combined effects of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and Tropical Storm 'Auring' will bring strong to gale-force winds over the areas where Signal No. 1 is in effect, as well as over the rest of Visayas, Bicol Region, CALABARZON, and Mindoro Provinces, Marinduque, Romblon, and the northern portion of Palawan (including Calamian, Cuyo, and Kalayaan Islands). Strong breeze to near-gale conditions are also likely over the rest of Luzon.
Hazards affecting coastal waters
In the next 24 hours, rough to high seas (2.8 to 7.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of areas under TCWS.
Rough to very rough seas (2.8 to 5.0 m) will prevail over the eastern and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon, and the remaining seaboards of Visayas. Rough seas (2.5 to 4.0 m) will prevail over the northern and western seaboards of Mindanao and the remaining seaboards of Luzon. Sea travel is risky for all types of sea vessels over these waters.
Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.0 m) will be experienced over the remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only have of those are projected to make landfall.
— The Summit Express
At 4:00 am today, the center of Tropical Storm 'Auring' was estimated based on all available data at 475 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur. It has maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 90 km/h.
Forecast Position
- 24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 265 km East of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur
- 48 Hour(Monday morning):100 km East Southeast of Roxas City, Capiz
- 72 Hour(Tuesday morning): 85 km Northwest of Coron, Palawan
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS No. 1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Visayas
- Northern Samar
- Eastern Samar
- Samar
- Biliran
- Leyte
- Southern Leyte
- Cebu
- Negros Oriental
- Bohol
- Siquijor
Mindanao
- Dinagat Islands
- Surigao del Norte
- Surigao del Sur
- Agusan del Norte
- Agusan del Sur
- Davao Oriental
- Davao de Oro
- Davao del Norte
- Davao City
- Camiguin
- Misamis Oriental
- Misamis Occidental
- Lanao del Norte
- Bukidnon
- Lanao del Sur
Impacts of the wind
- Very light or no damage to low risk structures
- Light damage to medium to high risk structures
- Slight damage to some houses of very light
- materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
- Twigs of small trees may be broken.
- Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Hazards affecting land areas
Heavy Rainfall
Until this noon: Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Eastern Visayas, Caraga, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, Bukidnon, Misamis Oriental, and Southern Leyte.
This noon through tomorrow (February 21) morning: Heavy to intense rains over Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, and Dinagat Islands. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, and the rest of Caraga. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, and the rest of Northern Mindanao.
Tomorrow morning through Monday (February 22) morning: Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Leyte, Southern Leyte, Cebu, Bohol, Surigao del Norte, and Dinagat Islands. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, the southern portion of Quezon, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, and the rest of Visayas and Caraga.
Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are likely during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps. Adjacent or nearby areas may also experience flooding in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels.
PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.
Strong winds
In the next 24 hours, the combined effects of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and Tropical Storm 'Auring' will bring strong to gale-force winds over the areas where Signal No. 1 is in effect, as well as over the rest of Visayas, Bicol Region, CALABARZON, and Mindoro Provinces, Marinduque, Romblon, and the northern portion of Palawan (including Calamian, Cuyo, and Kalayaan Islands). Strong breeze to near-gale conditions are also likely over the rest of Luzon.
Hazards affecting coastal waters
In the next 24 hours, rough to high seas (2.8 to 7.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of areas under TCWS.
Rough to very rough seas (2.8 to 5.0 m) will prevail over the eastern and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon, and the remaining seaboards of Visayas. Rough seas (2.5 to 4.0 m) will prevail over the northern and western seaboards of Mindanao and the remaining seaboards of Luzon. Sea travel is risky for all types of sea vessels over these waters.
Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.0 m) will be experienced over the remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only have of those are projected to make landfall.
— The Summit Express
