Super Typhoon 'Rolly' PAGASA weather update November 1, 2020

MANILA, Philippines – 'Bagyong Rolly' (Goni), 2020's strongest storm on Earth, intensifies into Super Typhoon and makes landfall over Bato, Catanduanes, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 5:00 am bulletin on Sunday, November 1, 2020.

Satellite image of Super Typhoon 'Rolly' (Goni) as of 5:10 am, November 1, 2020. PAGASA

Within the next 12 hours, catastrophic violent winds and intense to torrential rainfall associated with the region of the eyewall and inner rainbands of the typhoon will be experienced over Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, the northern portion of Sorsogon and the central and southern portions of Quezon. This a particularly dangerous situation for these areas.

The center of the eye of Super Typhoon 'Rolly' made landfall in the vicinity of Bato, Catanduanes at 4:50 AM this morning.

UPDATES

• 'Rolly' weakens into typhoon; Signal No. 4 up in 19 areas
• Super Typhoon 'Rolly' makes second landfall over Tiwi, Albay; Metro Manila under Signal No. 4

After traversing the southern portion of Catanduanes, the center of the typhoon will cross Lagonoy Gulf and make landfall over the southern portion of Camarines Sur or the northern portion of Albay this morning.

Afterwards, the center will cross the Camarines Provinces before heading towards CALABARZON this afternoon.

'Rolly' is forecast to exit the mainland Luzon landmass and emerge over the Philippine Sea tomorrow early morning. During its traverse of Southern Luzon, 'Rolly' is forecast to weaken but will emerge as a typhoon over the West Philippine Sea.

At 4:50 am today, the center of the eye of Super Typhoon 'Rolly' was located based on all available including those from Virac, Daet, and Guiuan Doppl In the vicinity of Bato, Catanduanes.

'Bagyong Rolly' has maximum sustained winds of 225 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 280 km/h. It is moving West Southwestward at 25 km/h.

Forecast Position

• 24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 100 km West Southwest of Subic, Zambales
• 48 Hour(Tuesday morning):455 km North of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)
• 72 Hour(Wednesday morning): 455 km North Northwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS)

TCWS No. 5 (Very strong winds of more than 220 km/h may be expected in at least 12 hours)

• Catanduanes
• Albay
• eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Presentacion, Garchitorena, Lagonoy, Tinambac, Calabanga, Siruma, Tigaon, Bombon, Magarao, Camaligan, Gainza, Canaman, Milaor, Naga City, Minalabac, Balatan, Bula, Pili, Ocampo, Goa, San Jose, Sagnay, Buhi, Iriga City, Baao, Nabua, Bato)

Impact of the Wind

• Widespread damage to high-risk structures.
• Very heavy damage to medium-risk structures.
• Heavy damage to low-risk structures.
• Almost total damage to structures of light materials, especially in highly exposed coastal areas.
• Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Severe and extensive window and door damage.
• Most residential and institutional buildings of mixed construction may be severely damaged.
• Electrical power distribution and communication services severely disrupted.
• All signs/billboards blown down.
• Total damage to banana plantation.
• Most tall trees are broken, uprooted or defoliated.
• Coconut trees are stooped, broken or uprooted.
• Few plants and trees survived.

TCWS No. 4 (Winds of greater than 171 km/h up to 220 km/h may be expected in at least 12 hours)

• Camarines Norte
• the rest of Camarines Sur
• the northern portion of Sorsogon (Donsol, Pilar, Castilla, Sorsogon City, Prieto Diaz, Gubat, Barcelona, Juban, Casiguran, Magallanes)
• Burias Island
• the central and southern portions of Quezon (Atimonan, Padre Burgos, Agdangan, Plaridel, Unisan, Gumaca, Pitogo, Macalelon, Catanauan, General Luna, Mulanay, San Francisco, San Andres, San Narciso, Buenavista, Lopez, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Calauag, Quezon, Alabat, Perez)
• Marinduque
• the northern portion of Romblon (Concepcion, Corcuera, Banton)

TCWS No. 3 (Winds of greater than 121 km/h up to 170 km/h may be expected in at least 18 hours)

• the rest of Sorsogon
• the northern portion of Masbate (Mobo, Masbate City, Milagros, Uson, Baleno, Aroroy, Mandaon) including Ticao Island
• the rest of Quezon including Polillo Island
• Laguna
• Batangas
• Cavite
• Rizal
• Metro Manila
• Bulacan
• Pampanga
• Bataan
• the southern portion of Zambales (San Marcelino, San Felipe, Olongapo City, Subic, Castillejos, San Antonio, San Narciso, Botolan, Cabangan)
• the central portion of Romblon (Calatrava, San Andres, San Agustin, Romblon, Magdiwang, San Fernando, Cajidiocan)
• the northern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Sablayan, Mamburao, Santa Cruz, Abra de Ilog, Paluan) including Lubang Island
• the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Bongabong, Gloria, Bansud, Pinamalayan, Socorro, Pola, Victoria, Naujan, Calapan City, Baco, San Teodoro, Puerto Galera)

TCWS No. 2 (Winds of greater than 61 km/h and up to 120 km/h may be expected in at least 24 hours)

• Aurora
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Quirino
• Benguet
• La Union
• Pangasinan
• the rest of Zambales
• Tarlac
• Nueva Ecija
• the rest of Oriental Mindoro
• the rest of Occidental Mindoro
• the rest of Romblon
• the rest of Masbate
• the northern portion of Samar (Catbalogan City, Jiabong, Motiong, Paranas, Hinabangan, San Sebastian, Tarangnan, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao, Gandara, Santa Margarita, Calbayog City, Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An)
• the northern portion of Eastern Samar (San Julian, Sulat, Taft, Can-Avid, Dolores, Maslog, Oras, San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad)
• the extreme northern portion of Antique (Pandan, Libertad, Caluya), and the northwestern portion of Aklan (Buruanga, Malay, Nabas, Ibajay)

TCWS No. 1 (Winds of 30-60 km/h may be expected in at least 36 hours)

• mainland Cagayan
• Isabela
• Apayao
• Kalinga
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• Abra
• Ilocos Norte
• Ilocos Sur
• Calamian Islands
• the rest of the northern portion of Antique (Sebaste, Culasi, Tibiao, Barbaza, Laua-An)
• the rest of Aklan
• Capiz
• the northern portion of Iloilo (Lemery, Sara, Concepcion, San Dionisio, Batad, Estancia, Balasan, Carles)
• the northern portion of Cebu (San Remigio, Bogo City, Medellin, Daanbantayan) including Bantayan Islands
• Biliran
• the rest of Samar
• the rest of Eastern Samar
• the northern portion of Leyte (San Isidro, Tabango, Villaba, Matag-Ob, Palompon, Ormoc City, Pastrana, Palo, Calubian, Leyte, Kananga, Capoocan, Carigara, Jaro, Tunga, Barugo, Alangalang, Santa Fe, Tacloban City, Babatngon, San Miguel)

Hazards affecting land areas

Rainfall: Today, the passage of Super Typhoon 'Rolly' will bring heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Metro Manila, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro Provinces, Bataan, Bulacan, Aurora, Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran, and the eastern portions of mainland Cagayan and Isabela.

Moderate to heavy rains with at times intense rains will be experienced over Cordillera Administrative Region, Leyte, and the rest of mainland Cagayan Valley and Central Luzon

Light to moderate with at times heavy rains will be experienced over Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, and the rest of Luzon and Visayas.

Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards.

Strong winds: Very destructive to devastating typhoon-force winds will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) #4 and #5, destructive typhoon-force winds in areas under TCWS #3, damaging gale- to storm-force winds in areas under TCWS #2, and strong breeze to near gale conditions in areas under TCWS #1.

Elsewhere, strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterlies will be experienced over the rest of Northern Luzon that are not under TCWS #1.

Storm surge in the next 24 hours

• more than 3.0 m over the coastal areas of Catanduanes and Camarines Norte and the northern coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands and Camarines Sur
• up to 3.0 m over the coastal areas of Metro Manila, Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, the southeastern coastal area of Batangas (facing Tayabas Bay), and most of the southern coastal areas of Quezon
• up to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Marinduque, Lubang Island, Albay, Masbate (including Ticao and Burias Islands), Northern Samar, and Eastern Samar and the remaining coastal areas of Quezon, Camarines Sur, and Batangas.

Moreover, there is also a moderate to high risk of seiche or storm surge over the coastal areas surrounding Laguna de Bay and Taal Lake. These storm surges, which may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast can cause life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation.

Hazards affecting coastal waters

Today, rough to phenomenal seas (2.5 to 16.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboard of areas where TCWS is in effect and rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas (that are not under TCWS) and Caraga.

Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters, especially those under TCWS.

Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Other tropical systems being monitored

At 2:00 am today, the Tropical Depression 'Atsani' re-intensified into a tropical storm and at 4:00 AM, its center was estimated at 1,280 km East of Southern Luzon.

It currently has maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.

It is moving west-northwestward at 30 km/h and is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility this afternoon.

Once inside the PAR, 'Atsani' will be given the domestic name 'Siony'. It remains less likely to affect any portion of the country over the next 2 to 3 days. It is likely to intensify into a severe tropical storm in the next 24 to 36 hours.

'Bagyong Rolly' is the Philippines' 18th tropical cyclone for 2020, and the 5th for October.

On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.

PAGASA declared the onset of rainy season on June 12.

— The Summit Express