MANILA, Philippines – 'Bagyong Rolly' (Goni), 2020's strongest storm on Earth, weakens into a typhoon and now off the coast of Pasacao, Camarines Sur, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 11:00 am bulletin on Sunday, November 1, 2020.
Track and intensity outlook
'Rolly' weakened into a typhoon at 8:00 am today.
Afterwards, it will pass over Batangas- Cavite area this late afternoon through evening.
'Rolly' is forecast to exit the mainland Luzon landmass and emerge over the Philippine Sea between tonight and tomorrow early morning. During its traverse of Southern Luzon, the typhoon is forecast to slightly weaken but will emerge as a typhoon over the West Philippine Sea.
At 10:00 am today, the center of the eye of Typhoon 'Rolly' was located based on all available data including Daet Doppler Radar over the coastal waters of Pasacao, Camarines Sur or 30 km West Southwest of Pili, Camarines Sur.
'Bagyong Rolly' has maximum sustained winds of 215 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 295 km/h. It is moving Westward at 25 km/h.
SEE ALSO: 'Bagyong Siony' PAGASA weather update November 1, 2020
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| Satellite image of Typhoon Rolly (Goni) as of 11:10 am, November 1, 2020. PAGASA |
Catastrophic violent winds and intense to torrential rainfall associated with the region of the eyewall and inner rainbands of the typhoon is prevailing or expected within the next 12 hours over the western portion of Camarines Sur, Marinduque, the central and southern portions of Quezon, Laguna, the eastern portion of Batangas, and Cavite. This a particularly dangerous situation for these areas.
Track and intensity outlook
'Rolly' weakened into a typhoon at 8:00 am today.
The center of this typhoon will move towards Marinduque-Southern Quezon area this afternoon.
Afterwards, it will pass over Batangas- Cavite area this late afternoon through evening.
Between 5:00 to 8:00 pm, the center of the eye of 'Rolly' is located around 70 km south of Metro Manila.
'Rolly' is forecast to exit the mainland Luzon landmass and emerge over the Philippine Sea between tonight and tomorrow early morning. During its traverse of Southern Luzon, the typhoon is forecast to slightly weaken but will emerge as a typhoon over the West Philippine Sea.
At 10:00 am today, the center of the eye of Typhoon 'Rolly' was located based on all available data including Daet Doppler Radar over the coastal waters of Pasacao, Camarines Sur or 30 km West Southwest of Pili, Camarines Sur.
'Bagyong Rolly' has maximum sustained winds of 215 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 295 km/h. It is moving Westward at 25 km/h.
SEE ALSO: 'Bagyong Siony' PAGASA weather update November 1, 2020
Forecast Positions
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL (TCWS)
TCWS No. 4 (171-220 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 12 hours)
Luzon
TCWS No. 3 (121-170 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 18 hours)
Luzon
Visayas
TCWS No. 2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
Luzon
Visayas
TCWS No. 1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Luzon
Visayas
Hazards affecting land areas
Rainfall: Today, the passage of Typhoon 'Rolly' will bring heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Metro Manila, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro Provinces, Bataan, Bulacan, Aurora, and the eastern portions of mainland Cagayan and Isabela.
Moderate to heavy rains with at times intense rains will be experienced over Cordillera Administrative Region, Eastern Visayas, and the rest of mainland Cagayan Valley and Central Luzon.
Light to moderate with at times heavy rains will be experienced over Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, and the rest of Luzon and Visayas. Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards.
Strong winds: Very destructive to devastating typhoon-force winds will be experienced in areas under TCWS #4, destructive typhoon-force winds in areas under TCWS #3, damaging gale- to storm-force winds in areas under TCWS #2, and strong breeze to near gale conditions in areas under TCWS #1.
Potential impacts of the wind conditions to structures and vegetation under each wind signal are detailed in the TCWS section of this bulletin. Elsewhere, strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterlies will be experienced over the rest of Northern Luzon that are not under TCWS #1.
Storm surge: In the next 24 hours, there is a high risk of storm surge of the following:
Moreover, there is also a moderate to high risk of seiche or storm surge over the coastal areas surrounding Laguna de Bay and Taal Lake. These storm surges, which may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast can cause life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation.
Hazards affecting coastal waters
Today, rough to phenomenal seas (2.5 to 16.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboard of areas where TCWS is in effect and rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas (that are not under TCWS) and Caraga.
Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters, especially those under TCWS.
Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over remaining seaboards of the country.
Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
'Bagyong Rolly' is the Philippines' 18th tropical cyclone for 2020, and the 5th for October.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
PAGASA declared the onset of rainy season on June 12.
— The Summit Express
- 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 195 km West of Iba, Zambales
- 48 Hour (Tuesday morning):620 km West of Iba, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR)
- 72 Hour (Wednesday morning): 890 km West of Iba, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL (TCWS)
TCWS No. 4 (171-220 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 12 hours)
Luzon
- Camarines Norte
- Camarines Sur
- Catanduanes
- Albay
- the northern portion of Sorsogon (Donsol, Pilar, Castilla, Sorsogon City, Prieto Diaz, Gubat, Barcelona, Juban, Casiguran, Magallanes)
- Burias Island
- Marinduque
- Metro Manila
- Cavite
- Laguna
- Batangas
- Rizal
- Quezon including Polillo Islands
- Pampanga
- Bulacan
- the southern portion of Aurora (Dingalan)
- Bataan
- the southern portion of Zambales (San Marcelino, San Felipe, San Narciso, San Antonio, Castillejos, Subic, Olongapo City, Botolan, Cabangan) the northwestern portion of Occidental Mindoro(Mamburao, Paluan) including Lubang Island
- the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Baco, Calapan City, Naujan, Pola, Victoria, Socorro, Pinamalayan)
TCWS No. 3 (121-170 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 18 hours)
Luzon
- the rest of Sorsogon
- the northern portion of Masbate (Mobo, Masbate City, Milagros, Uson, Baleno, Aroroy, Mandaon) including Ticao Island
- the rest of Zambales
- Romblon
- the rest of Occidental Mindoro
- the rest of Oriental Mindoro
- Tarlac
- the southern portion of Nueva Ecija (Cuyapo, Talugtug, Muñoz City, Llanera, Rizal, Bongabon, Gabaldon, General Tinio, Laur, Palayan City, General Mamerto Natividad, Cabanatuan City, Santa Rosa, Peñaranda, Gapan City, San Isidro, Cabiao, San Antonio, Jaen, San Leonardo, Zaragoza, Aliaga, Talavera, Santo Domingo, Quezon, Licab, Guimba, Nampicuan)
- the central portion of Aurora (San Luis, Baler, Maria Aurora)
Visayas
- Northern Samar
TCWS No. 2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
Luzon
- the rest of Aurora
- Nueva Vizcaya
- Quirino
- Benguet
- La Union
- Pangasinan
- the rest of Nueva Ecija
- the rest of Masbate
Visayas
- the northern portion of Samar (Catbalogan City, Jiabong, Motiong, Paranas, Hinabangan, San Sebastian, Tarangnan, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao, Gandara, Santa Margarita, Calbayog City, Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An)
- the northern portion of Eastern Samar (San Julian, Sulat, Taft, Can-Avid, Dolores, Maslog, Oras, San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad)
- the extreme northern portion of Antique (Pandan, Libertad, Caluya)
- the northwestern portion of Aklan (Buruanga, Malay, Nabas, Ibajay)
TCWS No. 1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Luzon
- mainland Cagayan
- Isabela
- Apayao
- Kalinga
- Mountain Province
- Ifugao
- Abra
- Ilocos Norte
- Ilocos Sur
- the northern portion of Palawan (El Nido, Taytay, Dumaran, Araceli) including Calamian and Cuyo Islands
Visayas
- the rest of the northern portion of Antique (Sebaste, Culasi, Tibiao, Barbaza, Laua-An)
- the rest of Aklan
- Capiz
- the northern portion of Iloilo (Lemery, Sara, Concepcion, San Dionisio, Batad, Estancia, Balasan, Carles)
- the northern portion of Cebu (San Remigio, Bogo City, Medellin, Daanbantayan) including Bantayan Islands
- Biliran
- the rest of Samar
- the rest of Eastern Samar
- the northern portion of Leyte (San Isidro, Tabango, Villaba, Matag-Ob, Palompon, Ormoc City, Pastrana, Palo, Calubian, Leyte, Kananga, Capoocan, Carigara, Jaro, Tunga, Barugo, Alangalang, Santa Fe, Tacloban City, Babatngon, San Miguel)
Hazards affecting land areas
Rainfall: Today, the passage of Typhoon 'Rolly' will bring heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Metro Manila, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro Provinces, Bataan, Bulacan, Aurora, and the eastern portions of mainland Cagayan and Isabela.
Moderate to heavy rains with at times intense rains will be experienced over Cordillera Administrative Region, Eastern Visayas, and the rest of mainland Cagayan Valley and Central Luzon.
Light to moderate with at times heavy rains will be experienced over Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, and the rest of Luzon and Visayas. Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards.
Strong winds: Very destructive to devastating typhoon-force winds will be experienced in areas under TCWS #4, destructive typhoon-force winds in areas under TCWS #3, damaging gale- to storm-force winds in areas under TCWS #2, and strong breeze to near gale conditions in areas under TCWS #1.
Potential impacts of the wind conditions to structures and vegetation under each wind signal are detailed in the TCWS section of this bulletin. Elsewhere, strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterlies will be experienced over the rest of Northern Luzon that are not under TCWS #1.
Storm surge: In the next 24 hours, there is a high risk of storm surge of the following:
- more than 3.0 m over the coastal areas of Catanduanes and Camarines Norte and the northern coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands and Camarines Sur
- up to 3.0 m over the coastal areas of Metro Manila, Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, the southeastern coastal area of Batangas (facing Tayabas Bay), and most of the southern coastal areas of Quezon
- up to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Marinduque, Lubang Island, Albay, Masbate (including Ticao and Burias Islands), the western coastal area of Northern Samar, the northern coastal area of Mindoro Provinces, and the remaining coastal areas of Quezon, Camarines Sur, and Batangas.
Moreover, there is also a moderate to high risk of seiche or storm surge over the coastal areas surrounding Laguna de Bay and Taal Lake. These storm surges, which may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast can cause life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation.
Hazards affecting coastal waters
Today, rough to phenomenal seas (2.5 to 16.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboard of areas where TCWS is in effect and rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas (that are not under TCWS) and Caraga.
Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters, especially those under TCWS.
Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over remaining seaboards of the country.
Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
'Bagyong Rolly' is the Philippines' 18th tropical cyclone for 2020, and the 5th for October.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
PAGASA declared the onset of rainy season on June 12.
— The Summit Express
