MANILA, Philippines – 'Bagyong Ulysses' (Vamco) has slowed down while moving northwestward and likely to make landfall over Quezon on Thursday morning, with a close approach of Catanduanes and Camarines Norte tomorrow afternoon and evening, respectively, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 5:00 am bulletin on Tuesday, November 10, 2020.
However, the slight shift in the orientation of the track forecast shows an increasing likelihood of landfall over Bicol Region tomorrow afternoon or evening.
SEE ALSO: 'Bagyong Ulysses' PAGASA weather update November 11, 2020
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| Satellite image of Tropical Storm Ulysses as of 5:00 am, November 10, 2020. PAGASA |
However, the slight shift in the orientation of the track forecast shows an increasing likelihood of landfall over Bicol Region tomorrow afternoon or evening.
SEE ALSO: 'Bagyong Ulysses' PAGASA weather update November 11, 2020
'Ulysses' is forecast to intensity into a severe tropical storm tonight. Owing to favorable conditions, this storm may reach typhoon category by tomorrow morning and reach its peak intensity (140-155 km/h) tomorrow afternoon or evening. Landfall at or near peak intensity is highly likely.
At 4:00 am today, the center of Tropical Storm 'Ulysses' was estimated based on all available data at 555 km East of Virac, Catanduanes.
'Ulysses' has maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.
Forecast Positions
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Luzon
Visayas
Hazards affecting land areas
Strong winds: In anticipation of the onset of strong breeze to near gale conditions associated with 'Ulysses', TCWS #1 is now in effect over more localities in CALABARZON, Bicol Region, and Eastern Visayas.
More areas in these regions will be placed under TCWS #1 in the next bulletin. TCWS #2 may be hoisted in some areas of Bicol Region as early as tonight. Based on the intensity forecast, the highest wind signal to be hoisted during the passage of the storm will be TCWS #3.
Heavy rainfall: Today, the tail-end of a cold front (shear line) will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, and Apayao. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains due to 'Ulysses' will also be experienced over Aurora, Quezon, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and Davao Region.
Moderate to heavy rains associated with the rainbands of the cyclone will begin affecting Bicol Region and portions of Eastern Visayas tomorrow.
Flooding (including flashfloods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and/or those that received significant antecedent rainfall.
PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.
Hazards affecting coastal waters
In the next 24 hours, rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) will be experienced over the entire seaboards of Northern Luzon and the seaboards of Kalayaan Islands due to the surge of the Northeast Monsoon. Meanwhile, 'Ulysses' will also bring rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 4.5) over the seaboards of areas under TCWS, Aurora, and northern Quezon (including the northern and eastern coastal waters of Polillo Islands) and the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar (that are not under TCWS).
Sea travel is risky over these waters, especially for mariners of small seacrafts.
Moderate to rough seas will be experienced over the western seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Mindanao.
Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
'Bagyong Ulysses' is the Philippines' 21st tropical cyclone for 2020 and third for November.
The weather bureau advised of more cyclones that could enter PAR until December.
PAGASA declared the onset of rainy season on June 12.
— The Summit Express
At 4:00 am today, the center of Tropical Storm 'Ulysses' was estimated based on all available data at 555 km East of Virac, Catanduanes.
'Ulysses' has maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.
Forecast Positions
- 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 280 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
- 48 Hour (Thursday morning): 60 km West Northwest of Daet, Camarines Norte or 60 km East Northeast of Alabat, Quezon
- 72 Hour (Friday morning): 370 km West of Sangley Point, Cavite City, Cavite
- 96 Hour (Saturday morning): 820 km West of Southern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)
- 120 Hour (Sunday morning):1,090 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Luzon
- Catanduanes
- Camarines Norte
- Camarines Sur
- Albay
- Sorsogon
- the eastern portion of Masbate (Aroroy, Pio V. Corpuz, Cataingan, Palanas, Uson, Dimasalang, Masbate City, Mobo, Baleno) including Ticao and Burias Islands
- the southeastern portion of Quezon (Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Buenavista, San Andres, San Narciso)
Visayas
- Northern Samar
- the northern portion of Samar (Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An, Tarangnan, Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, Gandara, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao)
- the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Maslog, Dolores, Oras, San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad)
Hazards affecting land areas
Strong winds: In anticipation of the onset of strong breeze to near gale conditions associated with 'Ulysses', TCWS #1 is now in effect over more localities in CALABARZON, Bicol Region, and Eastern Visayas.
More areas in these regions will be placed under TCWS #1 in the next bulletin. TCWS #2 may be hoisted in some areas of Bicol Region as early as tonight. Based on the intensity forecast, the highest wind signal to be hoisted during the passage of the storm will be TCWS #3.
Heavy rainfall: Today, the tail-end of a cold front (shear line) will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, and Apayao. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains due to 'Ulysses' will also be experienced over Aurora, Quezon, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and Davao Region.
Moderate to heavy rains associated with the rainbands of the cyclone will begin affecting Bicol Region and portions of Eastern Visayas tomorrow.
Flooding (including flashfloods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and/or those that received significant antecedent rainfall.
PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.
Hazards affecting coastal waters
In the next 24 hours, rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) will be experienced over the entire seaboards of Northern Luzon and the seaboards of Kalayaan Islands due to the surge of the Northeast Monsoon. Meanwhile, 'Ulysses' will also bring rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 4.5) over the seaboards of areas under TCWS, Aurora, and northern Quezon (including the northern and eastern coastal waters of Polillo Islands) and the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar (that are not under TCWS).
Sea travel is risky over these waters, especially for mariners of small seacrafts.
Moderate to rough seas will be experienced over the western seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Mindanao.
Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
'Bagyong Ulysses' is the Philippines' 21st tropical cyclone for 2020 and third for November.
The weather bureau advised of more cyclones that could enter PAR until December.
PAGASA declared the onset of rainy season on June 12.
— The Summit Express
