MANILA, Philippines – The center of Severe Tropical Storm 'Siony' (Atsani) is likely to pass very close or over Itbayat Island, Batanes with the next 2 to 3 hours, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 5:00 am bulletin on Friday, November 6, 2020.
'Bagyong Siony' is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight. It will then turn southwestward tomorrow morning over the sea to the southwest of Taiwan and move over the West Philippine Sea towards the Paracel Islands area.
SEE ALSO: 'Siony' out, potential 'Tonyo' in: PAGASA weather update November 7, 2020
'Bagyong Siony' is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight. It will then turn southwestward tomorrow morning over the sea to the southwest of Taiwan and move over the West Philippine Sea towards the Paracel Islands area.
SEE ALSO: 'Siony' out, potential 'Tonyo' in: PAGASA weather update November 7, 2020
'Siony' is forecast to either maintain its current strength or slightly intensify to 100 km/h within the next 24 hours. Beyond this 24-hour window, the storm is forecast to significantly weaken due to increasingly unfavorable conditions associated with a surge of the northeasterlies over the West Philippine Sea. It may be downgraded to a Low Pressure Area on Monday.
At 4:00 am today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm 'Siony' was estimated based on all available data at 60 km East Northeast of Basco, Batanes or 70 km East of Itbayat, Batanes.
'Siony' has maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h. It is moving Westward at 20 km/h.
Forecast Positions
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Hazards affecting land areas
Strong winds: Areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal #2 are currently experiencing damaging gale- to storm-force winds, while those under TCWS #1 are currently experiencing strong breeze to near gale conditions.
Heavy rains: Today, the passage of 'Siony' will bring moderate to heavy rains over areas under TCWS #2 and light to moderate with at times heavy rains over areas under TCWS #1.
Flooding (including flashfloods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas identified in geohazard maps as highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards.
Storm surge: In the next 24 hours, there remains a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge of 1.0 to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Batanes and Babuyan Islands.
Hazards affecting coastal waters
In the next 24 hours, rough to high seas (3.0 to 8.0 m) will prevail over the coastal waters of areas where TCWS #2 and #1 are in effect while areas under gale warning will be experiencing rough to very rough seas (3.0 to 4.5 m).
Sea travel is risky over these waters for all types of seacrafts in areas under TCWS and for small seacrafts in areas under gale warning.
Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.0 m) will be experienced over the western seaboard of Central Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Other tropical systems being monitored (as of 4:00 AM today)
The Low Pressure Area outside the PAR was estimated at 1,515 km East of Mindanao. It is forecast to move generally west-northwestward or northwestward and may enter the PAR this afternoon or evening.
'Bagyong Siony' is the Philippines' 19th tropical cyclone for 2020.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
However, the weather bureau advised of the possibility of 3 cyclones this month and 2 cyclones in December that could enter PAR.
PAGASA declared the onset of rainy season on June 12.
— The Summit Express
At 4:00 am today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm 'Siony' was estimated based on all available data at 60 km East Northeast of Basco, Batanes or 70 km East of Itbayat, Batanes.
'Siony' has maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h. It is moving Westward at 20 km/h.
Forecast Positions
- 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 265 km West Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)
- 48 Hour (Sunday morning): 570 km West of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)
- 72 Hour (Monday morning): 770 km West of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (OUTSIDE PAR)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
- Batanes
- Babuyan Islands
TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
- the northern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Lal-Lo, Allacapan, Santa Teresita, Buguey, Camalaniugan, Aparri, Ballesteros, Abulug, Pamplona, Sanchez-Mira, Claveria, Santa Praxedes), the northern portion of Apayao (Santa Marcela, Luna, Calanasan)
- the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Adams, Pagudpud, Bangui, Dumalneg, Burgos, Vintar, Pasuquin, Bacarra)
Hazards affecting land areas
Strong winds: Areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal #2 are currently experiencing damaging gale- to storm-force winds, while those under TCWS #1 are currently experiencing strong breeze to near gale conditions.
Heavy rains: Today, the passage of 'Siony' will bring moderate to heavy rains over areas under TCWS #2 and light to moderate with at times heavy rains over areas under TCWS #1.
Flooding (including flashfloods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas identified in geohazard maps as highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards.
Storm surge: In the next 24 hours, there remains a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge of 1.0 to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Batanes and Babuyan Islands.
Hazards affecting coastal waters
In the next 24 hours, rough to high seas (3.0 to 8.0 m) will prevail over the coastal waters of areas where TCWS #2 and #1 are in effect while areas under gale warning will be experiencing rough to very rough seas (3.0 to 4.5 m).
Sea travel is risky over these waters for all types of seacrafts in areas under TCWS and for small seacrafts in areas under gale warning.
Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.0 m) will be experienced over the western seaboard of Central Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Other tropical systems being monitored (as of 4:00 AM today)
The Low Pressure Area outside the PAR was estimated at 1,515 km East of Mindanao. It is forecast to move generally west-northwestward or northwestward and may enter the PAR this afternoon or evening.
It is heading towards the direction of Eastern Visayas and may likely reach the area tomorrow afternoon or evening. This weather disturbance may develop into Tropical Depression 'Tonyo' within the next 48 to 72 hours.
'Bagyong Siony' is the Philippines' 19th tropical cyclone for 2020.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
However, the weather bureau advised of the possibility of 3 cyclones this month and 2 cyclones in December that could enter PAR.
PAGASA declared the onset of rainy season on June 12.
— The Summit Express
