MANILA, Philippines – Potential super typhoon Rolly (Goni) maintains its strength as it moves west-southwestward towards Bicol region, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 11:00 am bulletin on Saturday, October 31, 2020.
PAGASA said 'Bagyong Rolly' is likely to remain a typhoon category (185-205 km/h) by the time it grazes Bicol Region and makes landfall over Quezon. During its traverse over Luzon, it is forecast to weaken considerably and emerge as a severe tropical storm or minimal typhoon over the West Philippine Sea.
UPDATE: 'Rolly' intensifies into Super Typhoon; Signal No. 5 up in 3 areas
'Goni' has transformed from an ordinary Pacific cyclone into 2020's strongest storm on Earth, reports said. It is likely to cause a major disaster.
PAGASA said 'Bagyong Rolly' is likely to remain a typhoon category (185-205 km/h) by the time it grazes Bicol Region and makes landfall over Quezon. During its traverse over Luzon, it is forecast to weaken considerably and emerge as a severe tropical storm or minimal typhoon over the West Philippine Sea.
UPDATE: 'Rolly' intensifies into Super Typhoon; Signal No. 5 up in 3 areas
At 10:00 am today, the eye of Typhoon 'Rolly' was located based on all available data at 480 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes.
'Rolly' has maximum sustained winds of 215 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 265 km/h. It is moving West Southwestward at 20 km/h.
On the forecast track, the center of the eye of Typhoon 'Rolly' is forecast to pass very close to Catanduanes, the Calaguas Islands, and very close to mainland Camarines Provinces tomorrow morning, and over Polillo Islands and mainland Quezon tomorrow afternoon.
Violent winds and intense rainfall associated with the inner rainband-eyewall region will be experienced over Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and the northern portion of Camarines Sur tomorrow early morning through afternoon and over Quezon and the southern portion of Aurora tomorrow afternoon through evening.
After crossing Central Luzon, the center of 'Rolly' is forecast to exit the mainland Luzon landmass on Monday morning.
Forecast Positions
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS)
TCWS No. 3 (121-170 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 18 hours)
TCWS No. 2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Hazards affecting land areas
Rainfall: Beginning tomorrow early morning, the passage of Typhoon 'Rolly' will bring heavy to intense rains over Metro Manila, Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Marinduque, and the northern portions Occidental Mindoro and Oriental Mindoro.
Moderate to heavy rains will be experienced over Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Region, Romblon, and the rest of Occidental Mindoro and Oriental Mindoro.
Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards.
Strong winds: Destructive typhoon-force winds will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) #3, damaging gale- to storm-force winds in areas under TCWS #2, and strong breeze to near gale conditions in areas under TCWS #1.
Elsewhere, strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterlies will be experienced over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, and the coastal and mountainous areas of Cagayan and Isabela (that are not under TCWS #1).
Storm surge: There is a moderate to high risk of storm surge of up to 3.0 m over the northern coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands and up to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Aurora, Marinduque, Bicol Region, and Northern Samar and the other coastal areas of Quezon in the next 48 hours which may result in life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation.
This storm surge may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast.
Hazards affecting coastal waters
Today, rough to phenomenal seas (2.5 to 15.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboard of areas where TCWS is in effect and rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas (that are not under TCWS) and Caraga.
Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters, especially those under TCWS.
Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over remaining seaboards of the country.
Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Other tropical systems being monitored
At 10:00 am today, the center of Tropical Depression 'Atsani' was estimated at 1,655 km East of Southern Luzon.
It currently has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. It is moving northwestward at 25 km/h and is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow afternoon.
'Bagyong Rolly' is the Philippines' 18th tropical cyclone for 2020, and the 5th for October.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
PAGASA declared the onset of rainy season on June 12.
— The Summit Express
'Rolly' has maximum sustained winds of 215 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 265 km/h. It is moving West Southwestward at 20 km/h.
On the forecast track, the center of the eye of Typhoon 'Rolly' is forecast to pass very close to Catanduanes, the Calaguas Islands, and very close to mainland Camarines Provinces tomorrow morning, and over Polillo Islands and mainland Quezon tomorrow afternoon.
However, due to the proximity of the forecast track to Bicol Region, a landfall scenario over Catanduanes and Camarines Provinces is not ruled out.
Violent winds and intense rainfall associated with the inner rainband-eyewall region will be experienced over Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and the northern portion of Camarines Sur tomorrow early morning through afternoon and over Quezon and the southern portion of Aurora tomorrow afternoon through evening.
After crossing Central Luzon, the center of 'Rolly' is forecast to exit the mainland Luzon landmass on Monday morning.
Forecast Positions
- 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 70 km East of Daet, Camarines Norte
- 48 Hour (Monday morning):160 km West of Iba, Zambales
- 72 Hour (Tuesday morning): 620 km West of Iba, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR)
- 96 Hour (Wednesday morning):900 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS)
TCWS No. 3 (121-170 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 18 hours)
- Catanduanes
TCWS No. 2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
- the central and southern portions of Quezon (Mauban, Sampaloc, Lucban, Candelaria, Dolores, Tiaong, San Antonio, Sariaya, Tayabas City, Lucena City, Pagbilao, Atimonan, Padre Burgos, Agdangan, Unisan, Plaridel, Gumaca, Pitogo, Macalelon, General Luna, Catanauan, Mulanay, San Francisco, San Andres, San Narciso, Buenavista, Lopez, Calauag, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Quezon, Alabat, Perez) including Polillo Islands
- Camarines Norte
- Camarines Sur
- Albay
- Sorsogon
- Burias and Ticao Islands
- Marinduque
- Northern Samar
TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
- the rest of Masbate
- the rest of Quezon
- Rizal
- Laguna
- Cavite
- Batangas
- Romblon
- Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island
- Oriental Mindoro
- Metro Manila
- Bulacan
- Pampanga
- Bataan
- Zambales
- Tarlac
- Nueva Ecija
- Aurora
- Pangasinan
- La Union
- Benguet
- Ifugao
- Nueva Vizcaya
- Quirino
- the southern portion of Isabela (Aurora, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Naguilian, Benito Soliven, San Mariano, Palanan, Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Echague, San Agustin, Jones, Cordon, Santiago City, Ramon, San Isidro, Angadanan, Alicia, Cauayan City, Cabatuan, San Mateo) the northern portion of Samar (Tagapul-An, Almagro, Santo Nino, Tarangnan, Catbalogan City, Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, Gandara, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, Jiabong, Motiong, Paranas, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao)
- the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Taft, Can-Avid, Dolores, Maslog, Jipapad, Arteche, Oras, San Policarpo)
- Biliran
Hazards affecting land areas
Rainfall: Beginning tomorrow early morning, the passage of Typhoon 'Rolly' will bring heavy to intense rains over Metro Manila, Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Marinduque, and the northern portions Occidental Mindoro and Oriental Mindoro.
Moderate to heavy rains will be experienced over Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Region, Romblon, and the rest of Occidental Mindoro and Oriental Mindoro.
Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards.
Strong winds: Destructive typhoon-force winds will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) #3, damaging gale- to storm-force winds in areas under TCWS #2, and strong breeze to near gale conditions in areas under TCWS #1.
Based on the intensity forecast, the highest possible wind signal to be raised will be TCWS #4 (for very destructive typhoon-force winds).
Elsewhere, strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterlies will be experienced over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, and the coastal and mountainous areas of Cagayan and Isabela (that are not under TCWS #1).
Storm surge: There is a moderate to high risk of storm surge of up to 3.0 m over the northern coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands and up to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Aurora, Marinduque, Bicol Region, and Northern Samar and the other coastal areas of Quezon in the next 48 hours which may result in life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation.
This storm surge may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast.
Hazards affecting coastal waters
Today, rough to phenomenal seas (2.5 to 15.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboard of areas where TCWS is in effect and rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas (that are not under TCWS) and Caraga.
Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters, especially those under TCWS.
Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over remaining seaboards of the country.
Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Other tropical systems being monitored
At 10:00 am today, the center of Tropical Depression 'Atsani' was estimated at 1,655 km East of Southern Luzon.
It currently has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. It is moving northwestward at 25 km/h and is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow afternoon.
However, 'Atsani' remains less likely to affect any portion of the country over the next 2 to 3 days. It is likely to re-intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours.
'Bagyong Rolly' is the Philippines' 18th tropical cyclone for 2020, and the 5th for October.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
PAGASA declared the onset of rainy season on June 12.
— The Summit Express
