MANILA, Philippines –'Bagyong Quinta' (international name: Molave) has intensified into a tropical storm as it moves closer towards Bicol Region, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 5:00 am bulletin on Sunday, October 25, 2020.
At 4:00 am today, the center of Tropical Storm 'Quinta' was estimated based on all available data at 345 km East of Virac, Catanduanes.
RELATED UPDATES
At 4:00 am today, the center of Tropical Storm 'Quinta' was estimated based on all available data at 345 km East of Virac, Catanduanes.
RELATED UPDATES
'Bagyong Quinta' has maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h. It is moving Westward at 20 km/h.
Track and intensity outlook
Track: TS 'Quinta' is forecast to continue moving generally westward until its landfall over the Catanduanes-Albay-Sorsogon area this afternoon or evening.
Afterwards, it will traverse the Southern Luzon area until tomorrow afternoon or evening, then turn more west-northwestward over the West Philippine Sea.
It is likely to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday afternoon.
Intensity: Further intensification prior to landfall over Bicol Region remains likely and the possibility of 'Quinta' making landfall as a severe tropical storm is still not ruled out.
After crossing the Philippine archipelago, this tropical cyclone will continue intensifying over the West Philippine Sea, reaching typhoon category by Tuesday evening.
Forecast Positions
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Hazards affecting land areas
Rainfall: Today through tomorrow morning, 'Quinta' will bring moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Aurora, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Marinduque, Calamian Islands, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Aklan, and Antique.
The tail-end of a frontal system will likewise bring moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over the northern portions of mainland Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte.
These two weather systems will also bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Metro Manila, Cordillera Administrative Region, Zamboanga Peninsula, Bangsamoro, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and the rest of Visayas, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, and MIMAROPA.
Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahars) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards.
Strong winds: Gale conditions will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #2 while strong breeze to near gale conditions will be experienced in areas under TCWS #1.
In other areas, strong breeze to gale conditions will also prevail over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northern coastal areas of Ilocos Norte and mainland Cagayan due to the northeasterly surge.
Hazards affecting coastal waters
Today, rough to very rough seas will prevail over the entire seaboards of Northern Luzon (3.0 to 5.5 m) and the seaboards of Aurora, Zambales, northern Palawan including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands (2.5 to 4.5 m), and all areas under TCWS #2 and #1 (2.5 to 5.5 m). Sea travel is risky over these waters, especially for small seacrafts.
Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.8 m) will be experienced over the other seaboards of the country today. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea.
Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Other tropical systems being monitored
At 4:00 am today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm 'Saudel' outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) was estimated based on all available data at 1,125 km West of Northern Luzon.
It has maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h.
It is moving westward at 15 km/h and is heading towards the central portion of Vietnam. With this development, this is the final update on this tropical cyclone.
'Quinta' is the country's 17th tropical cyclone for 2020.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only have of those are projected to make landfall.
PAGASA declared the onset of rainy season on June 12.
— The Summit Express
Track and intensity outlook
Track: TS 'Quinta' is forecast to continue moving generally westward until its landfall over the Catanduanes-Albay-Sorsogon area this afternoon or evening.
Afterwards, it will traverse the Southern Luzon area until tomorrow afternoon or evening, then turn more west-northwestward over the West Philippine Sea.
It is likely to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday afternoon.
Intensity: Further intensification prior to landfall over Bicol Region remains likely and the possibility of 'Quinta' making landfall as a severe tropical storm is still not ruled out.
After crossing the Philippine archipelago, this tropical cyclone will continue intensifying over the West Philippine Sea, reaching typhoon category by Tuesday evening.
Forecast Positions
- 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 75 km West of Pili, Camarines Sur or 120 km East Southeast of Tayabas, Quezon
- 48 Hour (Tuesday morning): 365 km West of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro
- 72 Hour (Wednesday morning): 840 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)
- 96 Hour (Thursday morning): 1,265 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
- Catanduanes
- Camarines Norte
- Camarines Sur
- Albay
- Sorsogon
- the northern portion of Masbate (Baleno, Aroroy, Masbate City) including Burias and Ticao Islands
- the southern portion of Quezon (Perez, Alabat, Quezon, Calauag, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Buenavista, San Narciso, San Andres, San Francisco, Mulanay, Catanauan, Lopez, General Luna, Macalelon, Gumaca, Pitogo, Unisan, Plaridel, Atimonan, Agdangan)
- Marinduque
TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
- the rest of Masbate
- the rest of Quezon
- Laguna
- Rizal
- Batangas
- Cavite
- Metro Manila
- Bulacan
- Pampanga
- Bataan
- the southern portion of Zambales (San Marcelino, San Felipe, San Narciso, Castillejos, Subic, San Antonio, Olongapo City, Botolan, Cabangan) Occidental Mindoro
- Oriental Mindoro
- Romblon
- Northern Samar
- the northern portion of Samar (Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An, Gandara, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao, San Jorge, Tarangnan, Pagsanghan)
- the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Maslog, Dolores, Oras, Jipapad, Arteche, San Policarpo)
Hazards affecting land areas
Rainfall: Today through tomorrow morning, 'Quinta' will bring moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Aurora, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Marinduque, Calamian Islands, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Aklan, and Antique.
The tail-end of a frontal system will likewise bring moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over the northern portions of mainland Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte.
These two weather systems will also bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Metro Manila, Cordillera Administrative Region, Zamboanga Peninsula, Bangsamoro, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and the rest of Visayas, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, and MIMAROPA.
Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahars) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards.
Strong winds: Gale conditions will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #2 while strong breeze to near gale conditions will be experienced in areas under TCWS #1.
In other areas, strong breeze to gale conditions will also prevail over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northern coastal areas of Ilocos Norte and mainland Cagayan due to the northeasterly surge.
Hazards affecting coastal waters
Today, rough to very rough seas will prevail over the entire seaboards of Northern Luzon (3.0 to 5.5 m) and the seaboards of Aurora, Zambales, northern Palawan including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands (2.5 to 4.5 m), and all areas under TCWS #2 and #1 (2.5 to 5.5 m). Sea travel is risky over these waters, especially for small seacrafts.
Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.8 m) will be experienced over the other seaboards of the country today. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea.
Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Other tropical systems being monitored
At 4:00 am today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm 'Saudel' outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) was estimated based on all available data at 1,125 km West of Northern Luzon.
It has maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h.
It is moving westward at 15 km/h and is heading towards the central portion of Vietnam. With this development, this is the final update on this tropical cyclone.
'Quinta' is the country's 17th tropical cyclone for 2020.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only have of those are projected to make landfall.
PAGASA declared the onset of rainy season on June 12.
— The Summit Express
